French government announces constitutional amendments for New Caledonia

Analysis - French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne on Tuesday announced a Constitutional amendment to "unfreeze" New Caledonia's electoral roll. The amendment is scheduled to be submitted to the French Congress during the first quarter of 2024.

The proposed Constitutional change directly concerns New Caledonia's sensitive issue of the electoral roll, which had been "frozen" since 2007, as prescribed by the autonomy Nouméa Accord signed in 1998.

The Accord saw fit to disqualify French citizens who had not resided in New Caledonia before 1998, in a move that, at the time, was seen as a step to ensure indigenous Kanaks were not at risk of becoming a minority in their own country.

The French government's draft Constitutional bill is described as restoring the universal voting rights of French citizens, especially with regards to local elections such as the election of members of the Congress (territorial parliament) as well as the three provincial assemblies.

It is believed that due to the previous restrictions, some 20,000 French citizens (most non-Kanaks) residing in New Caledonia are being denied their voting rights for these local elections.

The Paris government was also invoking France's adherence to world-recognised democratic universal rights as enshrined in its Constitution.

However, after consulting the State Council and receiving its advice on several matters, France now intends to restore those rights in New Caledonia, but partially, in order to establish a compromise and maintain the "political balances" in the French Pacific territory.

At the next local elections, the vote will now be open to an "unfrozen", but still "restricted" electoral roll (what legalists now describe as a "sliding" electoral roll) comprising French citizens who have been residing there for at least ten years from the date of the vote, Borne said in a statement on Tuesday.

The Constitutional amendment draft "will be submitted to the advice of the (French) Constitutional Council in the next few days", Borne wrote.

If no Constitutional fault is found, it will then be put to the debate and eventual vote of both upper and lower Houses of Parliament, the Senate and the National Assembly, first separately and then gathered in Congress during the "first semester (6 months) of 2024".

But, even if approved by the Congress, the planned Constitutional reform leaves a door open for a local, inclusive proposal: it would "only come into force if no political agreement is reached between local (parties) before July 1, 2024", the French PM's release adds, invoking "political consensus" as being "the (French) government's priority".

France has attempted, for the past year, to get all of New Caledonia's local political parties to come to the discussing table and come up with a new agreement on New Caledonia's political future after the Nouméa Accord, signed in 1998, is now regarded as having expired.

But to date, despite several attempts on the part of the French government and five trips by French Home Affairs and Overseas minister Gérald Darmanin, one component of the pro-independence FLNKS umbrella, the Union Calédonienne (UC), even though it has participated in discussions at some level, is still refusing to join inclusive talks.

Reactions from local politicians

In reaction to those announcements, New Caledonia's pro and anti-independence parties have offered diverging views.

One of the main figures in the pro-French part of the political spectrum, Sonia Backès (head of the "Les Loyalists" party) said the French constitutional reform plan was "very good news".

"This means New Caledonia will go from a transitional to a permanent status in the French Constitution", she said.

But she regretted that a minimum of ten years ("too long", she said) was now to become the rule to become an eligible voter.

On the side of the pro-independence FLNKS front, its current "animator", Victor Tutugoro (who also leads the moderate pro-independence Union of Melanesian Parties -UPM-, one of the members of FLNKS), said he was "not surprised" but that his priority was now to find a "local agreement" between "local political stakeholders" which could be a successor to the Nouméa Accord.

He however expressed doubts on whether the Constitutional Amendment will get sufficient support in the French Congress (three-fifths of the votes are required).

"Things are a bit difficult if you look at the concept of government majority. Will the French government muster enough support? We don't know."

Another diverging view came from Union Calédonienne (UC) President Daniel Goa, who said "once again, the French State is imposing its own calendar" and that the most contentious point is the partial withdrawal of restrictions to New Caledonia's electoral roll.

Local elections postponed

Another draft bill, to be presented to the French Parliament, will not require a Constitutional amendment, but will postpone the next provincial elections in New Caledonia (scheduled initially to take place in May 2024) until December 15, 2024 "at the latest".

As a result, the "current elective mandates of the members of the assemblies concerned will be extended accordingly".

Borne intends to table this bill before French Parliament to postpone those provincial elections and extend the term of their members in the course of the first three months of 2024.

Is the Nouméa Accord still alive?

Over the past few years, the interpretation of the Nouméa Accord has got many puzzled and undecided.

In its advice to the French Government, as published on its website, the French State Council also provides a welcome interpretation of the Nouméa Accord and the question of whether it has now expired or not.

As prescribed by the Nouméa Accord, three self-determination referendums have taken place over the past five years, all yielding a "no" to independence.

The 1998 document says in view of this scenario, "the political partners shall meet to examine the resulting situation".

The French top tribunal believes that in this case (which has now become a reality), "as long as (political) consultations have not provided a new political arrangement, the political arrangement put in place by (the Nouméa Accord) will remain in force, at its latest stage of evolution, without any possibility of going back in time".

But the Council adds that the Accord was initially designed to last "about twenty years" and that after three referendums have been held and have rejected New Caledonia's proposed access to full sovereignty, "the process initiated by the Nouméa Accord is now complete".

The State Council further interprets that the Accord allowed restrictions to New Caledonia's electoral roll "only (...) insofar as it is strictly necessary for the purposes of implementation of the Accord".

The Council's analysis is that over 25 years after the signing of the document by New Caledonia's local parties (pro-France and pro-independence) and France, "some of those derogations have already ceased to be strictly necessary to the implementation of the Accord and that (...) their extent should start to diminish".