Photo: 123rf.com
Freight truck traffic has bounced back after a steep fall and the Reserve Bank is likely to pay close attention ahead of its decision to cut rates or not.
The ANZ Truckometer for July shows the heavy traffic index rose 6.1 percent compared to a 5.2 percent slump in June, while light traffic rose 1.5 percent.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said despite the bounce back in heavy traffic this month, freight truck activity remains generally very low.
"In terms of the actual numbers of trucks on the road in terms of the data, not seasonally adjusted, it was a very small lift. So, it's not as if people will have suddenly noticed queues of trucks on the road. That number is still quite low, but they're always very low in July. So, once you adjust for that, it was actually a pretty strong bounce back in the month."
Zollner said monthly traffic data can be volatile and June's fall was likely caused by short-term factors like weather or roadworks.
But she said other monthly data sets including house sales and job ads also dropped in June, indicating all round poor economic conditions.
"The market is putting a lot of weight on the weakness and those high frequency indicators. The big question is whether the Reserve Bank will do the same or whether they will wait to see a little bit more evidence because the top tier data, the GDP, the unemployment rate, the inflation... have actually come in much as they expected.
"But what we have seen is this high frequency data dive. So, I think that is putting a bit more focus on these monthly indicators."
The Reserve Bank meets on Wednesday to release its monetary policy statement.
Some economists are forecasting a cut to the official cash rate which has held tight at 5.5 for more than a year, while others think more evidence is needed.