Photo: Composite image Tim Walz Jim Watson/AFP JD Vance /AFP
The vice-presidential debate between the middle class Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and the working class Ohio Senator JD Vance was a surprisingly cordial affair.
In contrast to the two previous presidential debates both hopefuls listened to each other, and despite mics being on for the majority of the CBS News debate, interjections were minimal, and policy took a front seat.
A CBS News poll after the event pointed to an even match between the two. Forty-two percent picked Vance as the winner, 41 percent Walz, and 17 percent felt it was a tie. The CBS poll also found Vance's favourability improved after the debate, going from 40 to 49 percent.
An RNZ analysis of the words spoken show the two candidates were evenly matched, with each speaking a similar number of words. Despite the civility, and Vance conjuring a steadier vision of what a Republican win might entail, the data shows there was one shadow over the evening: Donald Trump.
Who talked the most?
There were fewer than 500 words between the two candidates, with both taking almost the same number of speaking turns. Walz clocked in more than 8000 words, while Vance spoke 7846 words. Walz had three more speaking turns (36) than Vance (33).
The top ten longest answers in the debate were equally split, five apiece.
Walz's longest answer was about housing policy, in which he reinforced his middle class upbringing: "I bought and owned one house in my life. My mom still lives in the house where I was. And when I think of a house, I'm thinking of Christmas services, after midnight mass, where you go with your family."
His second longest answer was in response to whether he had been in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square protests as he had previously claimed. His 459 word answer did not address the question, but in response to a follow up he appeared to concede he may have been in China or Hong Kong.
Vance's longest answer came after he was asked how mass deportations of illegal immigrants would be carried out, and if parents would be separated from children. He failed to answer the question, and a follow up.
What was said
Donald Trump appeared to be top of mind for both candidates. Walz mentioned him 41 times, and Vance 55 times. "Kamala" made it into Vance's top ten most used words at 37 mentions, but running mate Walz only mentioned her name 19 times, ranking her his 23rd most used word.
Vance even outdid his boss on references to the border (19 mentions to Trump's 10 at his earlier debate with Harris) and immigration/immigrants (seven to Trump's four). Vance linked illegal immigration to gun violence, increased cost of living, narcotics, sex trafficking, unemployment and high house prices.
The topic of healthcare came up, as well as tax, but inflation and the economy did not make as frequent a showing as they did in the Harris/Trump clash. While Trump mentioned "economy" 13 times and "inflation" nine times in the first debate, his running mate only referred to the economy and inflation three and four times respectively.
If there's one thing voters aren't likely to forget from the debate, it's that Walz is the Governor of Minnesota. In the 90 minutes of the debate he managed to use the word "Minnesota" a staggering 24 times, using the term at least once in 16 of his 36 speaking turns.
Vance tried to sell the American dream, using the term five times during the debate: "If we get Donald Trump back in the White House, the American Dream is going to be attainable once again."
Both candidates were keen to push their middle and working class roots. "I was raised in a working class family," Vance said in his first turn to speak during the debate.
He also referred to this again in a response about abortion: "I grew up in a working class family in a neighbourhood where I knew a lot of young women who had unplanned pregnancies and decided to terminate those pregnancies because they feel like they didn't have any other options."
Walz referred to his and Kamala Harris's middle class roots when talking about housing. "I do believe in the middle class, because that's where we come from. We both grew up in that, we understand."
Why did Vance keep saying 'first of all'?
A common tactic to avoid answering a question is to use what's referred to as a 'block and bridge'. The politician acknowledges the question using a 'block' and then uses a 'bridge' phrase to move the topic to something they are more comfortable with. Common bridging terms are "I would say", "what I can tell you", "the reality is". The bridge allows them to transition the conversation to their own talking points.
Walz used a variety of common terms, but the stand out was Vance, who fell back on the phrase "first of all" 18 times in order to speak about a topic he wanted to discuss.
What was the vibe?
According to a language sentiment data dictionary, which rates words as either positive, neutral or negative, Vance used a higher percentage of both positive and negative than Walz during the debate.
Vance's top three negative terms were illegal, unfortunately and problem. Walz's top three were problem, crisis and lose.
How we analysed the data: The debate was transcribed by Otter.ai and then manually cleaned to improve accuracy. Text was analysed using R and the Quanteda package.