Xi Jinping leaves mainland China for the first time in years

China's leader, Xi Jinping, is making his first trip outside mainland China in more than two years, visiting Hong Kong to mark 25 years since Britain handed the city back to Chinese rule.

Curiously declining to stay a night in Hong Kong, Xi is travelling back and forth via high-speed rail from Shenzhen over two days.

While in Hong Kong, he will swear in the new local leader he indirectly appointed and mark the halfway point of a five-decade "One Country, Two Systems" arrangement.

His high-security trip comes after an extraordinary three years that saw an uprising against Hong Kong's closer integration with mainland China and a series of legal moves that radically clamped down on political dissent.

Coinciding with all the changes, the global pandemic saw Hong Kong shut its border to visitors, effectively keeping the former business hub cut off from the world for two years.

Observers say Xi's visit may be a chance to further strengthen Beijing's hold on Asia's "world city".

Xi's crackdown on dissent has already cast doubt on 50-year pledge

Ahead of the trip and in his first speech after arriving on Thursday afternoon, Xi has made it clear he is committed to "One Country, Two Systems" - a pre-handover promise that many believe has already been broken.

"Hong Kong has gone through a severe test, overcome all risks and challenges and weathered the winds and storms," he said.

"Hong Kong's resurrection shows vigour and vitality. This fact proves that 'One Country, Two Systems' has strong vitality, it can assure Hong Kong's prosperity and stability for a long time."

Hong Kong's high-profile security chief, Chris Tang, also used the occasion to flag plans to broaden Xi's national security law, which has already resulted in 189 arrests.

"Given the unique environment and lifestyle in Hong Kong under the 'One Country, Two Systems', some hostile external forces could easily infiltrate, attempting to divide and subvert the country," Tang told a Communist Party media outlet.

"Those forces also cultivate and advocate for 'Hong Kong independence', making the national security risks more apparent."

In 2019, up to two million Hongkongers took to the streets to protest against an extradition bill that would have allowed Beijing to transfer alleged criminals to the mainland.

The bill sparked an uprising that saw months of demonstrations and at-times violent clashes with police and the targeting of pro-government supporters.

The movement galvanised a record 71 per cent of registered voters to turn out at district council polls at the end of 2019, resulting in landslide support for opposition pro-democracy figures.

But Beijing stepped in. Xi Jinping's government criminalised political speech deemed to be subversive, secessionist or colluding with foreign forces, imposing heavy jail terms.

With new rules, and an overhaul of the system, he effectively abolished any real opposition in the local Legislative Council.

He also introduced the first steps of mainland-style censorship to Hong Kong's media and film industry, including the forced closure of two prominent news outlets.

Tommy Cheung, a veteran pro-Beijing member of Hong Kong's local parliament and an adviser to the executive council, says the changes have made the city safer.

"I think, if you ask not just me, but [also] the people in Hong Kong, they feel more safe going out, they feel more safe talking about things they want to talk about, without being set fire to," he told the ABC.

"If you ask me, the Legislative Council now is more efficient and effective whereas, even three years ago, five years, 10 years ago, we had too much filibustering. It was a waste of time."

He says opponents of Hong Kong's integration towards the mainland wrongly assumed a status quo would persist for 50 years.

"We have gone through ups and downs but, generally speaking, I'm very happy that, when we needed help, we asked China's government for help, they always came through with whatever assistance we needed," he said.

Whether the views of Hong Kong's government and Legislative Council members reflect those of the majority is another matter.

After Xi's government changed the local electoral system to slash the proportion of members chosen directly by citizens, voter turnout plummeted to an all-time low of just 30 percent for Legislative Council elections last year.

Opposition figures deemed disloyal or unpatriotic were barred from running, while 47 people involved in organising a primary vote to select opposition candidates were rounded up, jailed and prosecuted for national security crimes.

One former district councillor, who asked to remain anonymous due to fear of political reprisals, told the ABC, "now you have to be deemed a 'patriot' to govern in Hong Kong".

"Meaning, if you wave a national flag and thank the central government enough, they'll reward you with a seat," she said.

"Do people need to be the most capable and have a good reputation to become lawmakers now? I think not."

The former councillor, like many in the city, now fears that voicing criticism of the government or administration is dangerous.

Among those in jail awaiting trial for national security crimes are former politicians, academics, journalists and even a barrister.

Hong Kong police have also enthusiastically pursued activists protesting without police approval or breaching Covid-19 gathering rules, while multiple civil society organisations have disbanded under government pressure and threats.

The League of Social Democrats - which traditionally organised protests on the July 1 anniversary - has said it will not be organising any gatherings this year after warnings from National Security Police.

Exodus from Asia's 'world city'

The political changes have coincided with a global pandemic that has hit Hong Kong particularly hard.

Under Beijing's direction, the city closed its borders to the world for two years, decimating its role as a global business hub.

"If you go to a restaurant or a bar in Hong Kong nowadays, someone is always farewelling their friends or family members," Debbie Chan said.

Chan, elected in the 2019 opposition landslide, was among 260 councillors who resigned last year after Beijing imposed a new patriotic loyalty vetting process. She says many pro-democracy supporters are choosing to leave.

"The only reason you go to the airport these days is because you're sending your friends away," she said.

Immigration statistics show about 150,000 people have packed up and left in the past year, many to the UK and Australia.

Kevin Yam, a Hong Kong lawyer who moved to Melbourne in May, said the freedoms he once loved about his home city were disappearing.

He says Hong Kong still maintains significant differences to China, such as a genuinely independent judiciary for commercial law disputes and an internet largely devoid of China's pervasive censorship.

"But in areas such as human rights, civil liberties, and legal checks and balances on executive power, Hong Kong's system, in its own way, is becoming diminished," he said.

And that's helping persuade many professionals to leave.

"For years, the financial and business community already felt Hong Kong [was] expensive, bureaucratic and losing its competitiveness," Yam said.

"What made Hong Kong continue to be feasible for years is that it's one of the freest places in Asia, and it was a gateway between China and the rest of the world.

"But once Hong Kong loses its free flow of information, its freedom of movement through the Covid restrictions, and its role as the go-between [for] China and the West due to its integration into the mainland, then all you have is an expensive city to live in with none of the other advantages."

China's government has used its state media to portray such views as foreign perceptions of a city now rightly back in the motherland's firm embrace.

Government representatives in both the mainland and in Hong Kong - as well as political observers - are now signalling this week's anniversary might not mark the halfway mark of "One Country, Two Systems".

John Burns, honorary politics professor at the University of Hong Kong, told Reuters there was more than one explanation for the timing of Mr Xi's visit.

"First of all, it's a celebration for the 25th anniversary, of course, as we all know. But it is a celebration of the central government's victory over the political opposition in Hong Kong," he said.

With the political and legal changes in place neutralising perceived threats to the Communist Party's control, the leaders in Beijing may be content to keep what remains of the separate systems in place beyond 2047.

"It started with talk about 50 years but it has evolved," government adviser Cheung said.

"We move on, as a city, as part of China."

- ABC