Thaksin Shinawatra's return to Thailand after 15-years in self-imposed exile comes at a pivotal moment

By Lauren Day, ABC South East Asia correspondent, Bangkok

Thailand's divisive billionaire and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has returned to the country after more than 15 years of self-imposed exile.

The fugitive has been living overseas since he was overthrown in a military coup in 2006, while attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

The 74-year-old has wanted to return home for many years, but said multiple charges of corruption and abuse of power against him were politically motivated.

Once he hit the tarmac in Bangkok, Thailand's Supreme Court said he will serve a total of eight years in prison for three different cases of abuse of power and malfeasance.

He could also apply for a royal pardon.

But the timing of his arrival, just hours before MPs are set to vote on a new prime minister, comes at a pivotal moment in Thai politics.

Authorities have said he will be subject to the judicial process upon his return but a political expert doubts he would enter the country if he was likely to serve significant time.

"I think him coming back will be a really important chapter in Thailand's history," says Aim Sinpeng, a senior lecturer in comparative politics at the University of Sydney.

"It means we're now moving towards a different kind of politics where [his party] Pheu Thai is now an accepted part of the political system and accepted enough that he could come back and not have to pay a huge price for his return."

From police officer to tycoon and PM

Shinawatra is a wealthy telecommunications tycoon-turned-politician who was popular among the poor and working class while in power.

Born in Chang Mai, he served as a police officer for 14 years and studied in the United States before going into business for himself.

He and his wife Pojaman na Pombejra started a small computer dealership in 1983, benefiting from the subsequent technology boom that defined the next two decades.

By the 1990s, Shin Corp was a successful company operating mobile phone services, cable television subscriptions and satellites.

Shinawatra made the move into politics in 1998, founding the Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party and campaigned on a platform of cheaper medical care and debt relief, before securing office in 2001.

Among his defining legacies during his time in power were a raft of economic policies, which have been dubbed "Thaksinomics", and a 2002 universal healthcare initiative.

This cemented support for his party among working class voters, which continues to this day, but Shinawatra also angered the wealthy, who accused him of corruption, nepotism and a lack of respect for the rule of law.

He was ousted in a military coup in 2006 after the controversial sale of his company to Singapore's Temasek for almost $US2 billion.

The deal marked the beginning of his downfall, with opponents accusing him of using his power for his own interests.

He has lived in self-imposed exile abroad since 2008 to avoid a conviction for abuse of power.

The Shinawatras' complicated legacy

Despite his absence, he and his family have continued to loom large over Thai politics for two decades.

After the 2006 coup, a massive protest group dubbed the "Red Shirt" movement formed in opposition to Thailand's military government.

Tens of thousands of Shinawatra supporters took to the streets and paralysed parts of central Bangkok for months.

More than 90 people were killed as the army opened fire on the Red Shirts protesting in downtown Bangkok.

In 2011 the pro-Shinawatra, Pheu Thai party, won a landslide election victory and his sister, Yingluck, became the country's first female prime minister.

But three years later, she too was ousted by a military coup, led by then-Army chief Prayut Chan-o-cha.

She was put on trial the following year over her role in a failed rice subsidy scheme but fled the country, secretly, in 2017, ahead of the verdict.

Two coups were not enough to stop the Shinawatra political dynasty.

After almost nine years of military-backed rule, Shinawatra's youngest daughter, Paetongtarn, ran for prime minister in May.

Her party, a reformed Pheu Thai, came second in the vote, behind the progressive Move Forward Party, which was hugely popular with young and urban voters.

Move Forward's plans to end army conscription, break up monopolies and - most controversially - amend the country's controversial lese majeste law, which criminalises any criticism of the monarchy, made it and its leader some powerful enemies.

Despite its enormous success at the May poll, the party's prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat was first blocked by the unelected military-appointed Senate, then suspended from Parliament by the Constitutional Court.

Dr Sinpeng says even though they will now be in opposition, their success at the polls has irreversibly changed Thai politics.

"By voting for them, voters made their own preferences known that they want something to change drastically," she said.

"They're not talking about changing government, they're talking about changing the political structure of Thailand.

"So regardless of who's in government in the next election, we now know that nearly 40 per cent of Thais want that kind of big radical structural change."

Pheu Thai's controversial role as kingmaker

With the Move Forward Party's efforts thwarted, it is up to the runner-up Pheu Thai party to form government.

The Shinawatras' populist, anti-military party has spent months negotiating and horse-trading with some strange bedfellows to cobble together a new government.

Last week, the United Thai Nation Party - which is pro-military and affiliated with outgoing prime minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha - announced it would join a coalition with Pheu Thai in an attempt to form government after a three-month stalemate.

Protesters have accused Pheu Thai of "betraying the people" when it abandoned its alliance with Move Forward, while former Red Shirts leader Nattawut Saikua has resigned from the party.

"We have to make adjustments to keep the country going," Paetongtarn Shinawatra said in apology to voters.

"Of course, Pheu Thai has the price to pay, that is the criticism of the people. We humbly accept and apologise for making many disappointed and sad."

Pheu Thai has opted against Shinawatra's daughter as its prime ministerial candidate, choosing an obscure but less divisive name: real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin.

Political analyst Pravit Rojanaphruk said despite his lack of political experience, Thavisin was a safe choice.

"He's a very experienced businessman and highly respected within his business sector, the real estate industry," he said.

"He's also US-educated, so speaks fairly fluent English, [and] is a bit of a dandy in the way he dresses. Pheu Thai probably believes he will be a compromise choice to lead a new government… and attract less resistance from the public."

He also said there was less risk he'd be seen as a puppet of Shinawatra.

"This guy is a grown man, veteran businessman and the expectation that Thaksin Shinawatra … could just dictate Srettha whatever he likes might be a bit presumptuous," Mr Rojanaphruk said.

The parliamentary vote will take place hours after Shinawatra's return.

While the former prime minister told the BBC his return trip schedule was unrelated to the vote, the timing suggests the family is confident Pheu Thai will be successful.

Thaksin was expected to arrive on his private jet at Bangkok's Don Mueang Airport, at which point he would be immediately served with arrest warrants.

He would then be escorted by police through Immigration and on to the Supreme Court before being brought to the Klong Prem Central Prison in the Chatuchak district of Bangkok.

It was believed the 74-year-old will immediately seek a royal pardon but if the request is turned down, he would have to remain in prison for two years before re-applying.

The future of Thailand's democracy is in doubt

Rojanaphruk said Move Forward's shift from potentially forming government after winning the May poll to now being in opposition suggested Thai democracy is fundamentally flawed.

"It says that Thailand is not fully democratic as some people are trying to convince the world," he said.

He said it's clear the country is still experiencing the legacies of the military junta, who served from May 2014 until July 2019.

"Most visibly, the junta-appointed senators who have the temporary rights for five years to jointly vote with their elected MPs for a new prime minister and this is the reason why Move Forward Party's candidate Pita was rejected," he said.

Sinpeng said there was unlikely to be major structural change under a government led by Pheu Thai.

"It might look more appealing to other countries like Australia or the United States because it seems more legitimate or democratic but I think the government is not going to drastically change."

Sinpeng said she expects people will likely take to the streets again but doubts it will be the same scale as previous civil unrest in Thailand's recent history.

"We're likely to see more protests because people are upset that Move Forward doesn't get to become government and are upset [with] Pheu Thai for abandoning Move Forward and some people might also be upset about Thaksin returning," she said.

"But even if you combine the potential groupings of these three different large protests, they won't be large enough, nowhere near large enough that it would disrupt the country like what the red shirts and yellow shirts had done in the past."

This story was originally published by the ABC.