Taiwanese New Zealanders are unsure what William Lai's victory in the presidential election might mean in terms of cross-strait ties with China. Photo: Jimmy Beunardeau / Hans Lucas via AFP
Many Taiwanese in New Zealand kept a close eye on the election outcome in their homeland over the weekend.
Some believe that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader William Lai's victory, which cemented an unprecedented consecutive third term for the party, reflected what the majority wanted.
Others, however, expressed concern about tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the island's future.
Under the leadership of Lai and his deputy, Hsiao Bi-khim, the DPP broke Taiwan's eight-year cycle of cross-party rotation with rivals Kuomintang.
Auckland resident Lingling Liang said she had been in New Zealand for nearly 30 years but was still anxious in the runup to the election.
"This is not what I expected, but I respect the voters' choice," Liang said.
"(Outgoing Taiwanese President) Tsai Ing-wen has served two terms already and I had hoped to see a change in the ruling party, as this was an election under a democratic system," Liang said. "I had hoped the Kuomintang party would have some satisfactory results after two terms and eight years of recovery."
Liang said it was too early to know what impact the election results would ultimately have on the island's relationship with China.
"It's not that we want to complete a great historical project together, but the two sides need to get along, negotiate and be familiar with each other," she said. "At present, cross-strait communications have almost been cut off. This isn't good.
"I hope the two parties can restore healthy dialogue and communication so that national sentiment can be considered. It's also very important that the economies of Taiwan and the mainland complement each other."
Liang said armed conflict between China and Taiwan was still a possibility.
She believes New Zealand will likely take a pragmatic view of its relationship with Taiwan following the election, continuing to conduct scientific, technological, economic and cultural exchanges with the island on a regular basis.
Taiwanese Aucklander Allen Wu said the election results weren't completely surprising.
Wu said Lai's victory reflected an overall support for his policies, but exactly how much could change depended on how the executive and legislative branches of government cooperate.
In legislative elections held the same day, the opposition Kuomintang party won the most seats.
"Taiwanese people know what the general direction is but, after all, they didn't let the DPP win the Legislative Yuan," Wu said.
"They still want to check out how other parties are doing, so most people voted for Kuomintang in the Legislative Yuan election. ... Taiwanese people want to have checks and balances in place."
Regarding Taiwan's ongoing tensions with China, Wu called for peace in the region.
"If there is business, do business. If space is needed, then give the other party space," Wu said. "War isn't good for anyone and certainly isn't good for the rest of the world."
Taiwanese Hwa Hsia Society of New Zealand Chairperson Diamond Chen said that while it seemed as if the DPP had won the election, Ko Wen-je from the Taiwan People's Party was the real winner on the day.
"Compared with Tsai's victory in the last election, Lai received 2.5 million fewer votes. Where did these 2.5 million votes go? They went to Ko," Chen said.
"(Ko's) votes exceeded people's expectations, and most of them were from young people. The Kuomintang party lost, but it retained seats in the legislature."
Chen said the eight seats Ko and his party had secured in the legislature were more than likely enough to overturn decisions on some bills.
Jason Liang, a manager at Taiwanese restaurant Royal Horse in Auckland, said the results reflected public opinion and that peace between Taiwan and China should be maintained irrespective of whichever party was in power.
"I hope war will not break out because there have been so many wars in recent years, including the war between Ukraine and Russia as well as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Of course, I hope that there will not be any more conflicts," Liang said.
"It's best for everyone to live in peace," he said. "No matter which party is in power in Taiwan, they will not want war. They have different political ideas, but it is difficult to say whose direction is right and whose is wrong. You can only rely on a democratic vote."
John Zhang, a Taiwanese customer in the restaurant, believed the election results were not unexpected.
Nevertheless, he was a little concerned.
"I don't know if the results will upset Beijing," Zhang said. "If there is friction between the two parties, I don't know if it will cause tension or war."
As for the future direction of Taiwan-China relations, Zhang said it "depends on the wisdom of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait."
Alex Tan, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Canterbury, was in Taiwan during the election as an observer.
He said the results were close to what he had predicted.
Ever since DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian won the presidential election in 2000, voters' perceptions of their identity have started to change - something that is also reflected in the results of the election over the weekend.
"People in Taiwan have expressed a stronger identity with Taiwan," he said. "They see themselves more as Taiwanese than Chinese and do not see themselves as part of a greater China, nor do they want to be part of a larger China."