The battle for influence in the Pacific between the world's superpowers

Analysis - Over the last decade, an increasingly volatile relationship between the United States and China has slowly escalated; Trade sanctions, naval and aerial confrontations in the South China Sea, and a war of words has weakened foreign relations to what many say is the lowest point since the Cold War.

In recent months the pact between Australia, the UK and the United States (AUKUS) for the "exchange of naval nuclear propulsion information" has been presented as the foundation for an enhanced security partnership linked to a "free and open Indo-Pacific" and a rules-based international order.

The Chinese government has condemned AUKUS as reflecting a "Cold War mentality", involving a "path of error and danger", and as a threat to both "regional peace" and the "international nuclear nonproliferation regime".

Meanwhile, a task force has been formed in the US House of Representatives to combat what the US regards as the rising influence of China in the US territories and Freely Associated States in the Pacific.

"US renewed engagement in the South Pacific will be really positive, it will be positive for the economies of those countries," said Anja Manuel, a former US diplomat and executive director of Aspen Security Forum.

"It will be positive for the environment, so for whatever the reasons and the background, I think it's a great initiative and it's long overdue," Manuel said.

The first major move by the US into the Pacific region occurred in July last year, when Vice President Kamala Harris made a virtual address to leaders of the Pacific Islands meeting in Fiji. Harris announced plans for greater engagement.

It was well received by the leaders, with Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama welcoming the announcement.

"I think it's clear to see that the US is certainly looking more like the Pacific partner that we have traditionally held it to be," he said.

Two months later, Pacific Islands leaders met with President Joe Biden in Washington where a list of pledges were announced. These included allocating US$810 million in funding towards the Pacific and establishing embassies in Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Tonga.

Many critics, however, question the motives behind the sudden renewed US interest in the South Pacific - is it driven by genuine effort to improve the infrastructure and public services in small island states, or is it driven by a need to counter China's influence?

Manuel said greater US involvement was motivated in part by a need to maintain democratic values of a free society that China did not share - and that China's foreign policy was motivated by expansion in its influence and winning UN votes.

"It's not just China's influence in the Pacific Islands, it's in Africa, it's all over the world," Manuel said.

"China has been very effective in small states that each have a UN vote and with some incentives - some would call them bribes while others are totally legitimate - but using those to bring small states over to their side."

It is a sentiment shared by Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, who has long studied China's foreign policy.

Diamond said the country took a turn for the worst when China's President Xi Jinping took power in 2013 and said there was an imperialistic element to China's goals in the Pacific region.

"They want to push the United States out of the Pacific region entirely," said Diamond, a professor at Stanford University.

"These are very small countries (Pacific Islands) … it's not hard to manipulate - a little money can buy a lot of influence."

A force for good?

But all that suggests China's new-found influence in the Pacific is negative, but is that necessarily the case?

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare leaped to the defence of China on his visit to the country this month, saying its strategic interests are misunderstood.

The prime minister told Chinese media the partnership with "your great country China" was the way to go forward.

"It is really unfortunate ... all the nonsense we are hearing is basically that, a misunderstanding of what China is doing," he said.

"China has no other strategic interests other than Taiwan and, of course, the South China Sea.

"Any country in the world will not be comfortable if you start to intrude into areas which are seen as existential threats by any country. And China is no different."

Sogavare also reiterated the Pacific was not owned by anyone.

"Solomon Islands and other Pacific island countries are not [the] backyard of any other country.

"We are sovereign nations and capable of making our own decisions."

Last year, PNG Prime Minister James Marape welcomed China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Port Moresby and reiterated how important Beijing was to his country.

"China-PNG relationship cannot be compromised or sabotaged - it's a very important relationship," he said.

China said there were common interests between it and Pacific nations which could be developed positively.

In a position paper released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the country's position on the Pacific is outlined: "China and Pacific Island Countries, as developing countries, share broad common interests in safeguarding peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, upholding international equity and justice, and promoting sustainable and resilient development."

Current diplomacy

Recent diplomatic exchanges are an indication that both governments are willing to meet face to face to discuss their concerns.

Earlier this month, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited Beijing. On Sunday, she told journalists she was "eager" to work with China on areas of interest.

It has prompted a harsh reaction by the opposition Republican Party, which grilled Special Climate Envoy John Kerry in a hearing last week. Kerry is in China on a mission to discuss reducing fossil fuels emissions.

Republicans, however, have questioned the timing of the visit, pointing out the many allegations of human rights abuses in China.

Despite the criticisms, Biden's efforts to implement a stronger presence in the Pacific is arguably greater than any US president since World War II. Just two months ago, he signed an unprecedented defence partnership with Papua New Guinea.

"A great deal of the history of our world is going to be written in the Indo-Pacific over the coming years and decades," Biden said during his announcement, after meeting Pacific Island leaders in Washington last year.

"And the Pacific Islands are a critical voice in shaping that future," he added.

*RNZ Pacific journalist Finau Fonua is on a US Department of State funded reporting tour visiting government, academic, business and community institutions and organisations across several US States.