Wine expert Ali Lowrey on what affects a wine’s composition – soil, weather and chemistry – but above all, climate change

Ali Lowrey talks about the future of winemaking in this highlight of Auckland University's Raising the Bar Home Series.

(Webinar available soon on the RTBHE website)

Edited highlights from the discussion

As we move from the soil in the vineyard to the wine in the glass with a climate change lens, it’s important to note that wine is not essential for human survival. But I think it’s an important product of human ingenuity. I do acknowledge there are a lot more crucial industries where the effects of climate change would be a lot more detrimental to human existence than alcohol production.

However, it is still a massive industry. A lot of people’s livelihoods would be affected if it no longer existed. Worldwide, premium wine production occurs within really narrow climate ranges. So region by region, climate change is really going to shift wine production, especially in terms of grape selection. So that means what we can grow and where we can grow it will be affected.

We’re going to lose ability to grow grapes in places we’ve been growing them for a really long time. The hotter climate is changing the wine we know and love. So what will wines look like that are grown in warmer than normal temperatures? What will climate change taste like?

First, the grapes are going to be overripe. This makes wines that are less acidic. A crisp sauvignon blanc will no longer be as fresh. Wines will have more body and be sweeter. This is because the grapes on the vine will be exposed to hotter climate, so more sugar will accumulate within the grape. When you have grapes of a higher sugar, the yeast and fermentation will churn out more ethanol. So you usually get higher alcohol content.

Wines are commonly round the 12.5% alcohol mark, but we are going to see a lot more wines in the 14+% range. Flavours may be cooked as well. Some examples: with a red wine right are going to have more flavours of cooked fruit like stewed plums, baking spices, and prunes. So there’ll be a lot less of those bright fresh red cherries and raspberry flavours that I personally really like in a full New Zealand Pinot Noir.

So the chemical make-up, aroma and palate balance is going to change in the wine. What else?

Under the COP 2 degrees warming scenario Spain is forecast to lose about 65% of its wine-growing area. By 2100 the United States could lose up to 81% of its wine-growing area. Then other countries like Italy, Greece and notably France, maybe become completely inhospitable to grape production by 2050.

I’m personally waiting for a good vintage to invest in some Barossa red wines that I can age as those Australian regions will have about 25 years left until they’re gone. In New Zealand, it's unfortunately bad news for pinot noir lovers, as this is by far the variety most at risk of disappearance.

So what changes do we institute now about this? For example, in Bordeaux in France, you can’t grow whatever you like. There are very specific rules around what grape varieties you can plant. In 2021 the province approved six varieties that are more adaptive and temperature-resistant. So there will be less reliance on grapes like Merlot in the future. Replanting these varieties will cost a lot of money.

So red wine regions will be switching to later-ripening varieties such as a Grenache or a Monestrall as opposed to a Pinot Noir. I think New Zealand will expand in its climatically suitable area for these later ripening varieties by 15-60%.

About the speaker

Alexandra (Ali) Lowrey is a PhD candidate in chemistry whose main research interest is vineyard soil chemistry and its connections to the grapevine and subsequent wine. More broadly she is interested in vineyard synthetic chemical applications, climate change and sustainability. Born in Hawke’s Bay, she has extensive local wine industry knowledge. The geographical basis of her research involves the two largest wine-producing regions in New Zealand, Marlborough and Hawke’s Bay. She completed her master’s and postgraduate degrees at the University of Auckland’s Goldwater Wine Science Centre on Waiheke Island.

Raising the Bar is presented in association with the University of Auckland