Christopher Luxon is greeted as he arrives in Tonga for his first Pacific Islands Forum as prime minister. Photo: RNZ / Anneke Smith
Christopher Luxon is greeted as he arrives in Tonga for his first Pacific Islands Forum as prime minister.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has touched down in Tonga for his first Pacific Islands Forum in the top job.
The PIF has a lot on its agenda this year with political unrest in New Caledonia, relationships to repair after Micronesian countries threatened to leave the group a few years ago and the ongoing impacts of climate change.
Luxon will likely face questions about climate action and his government's move to grant new oil and gas permits in his face-to-face meetings with Pacific leaders over the coming days.
Pacific nations, often small islands, are on the frontline of sea level rise.
Tuvalu's foreign minister Simon Kofe drew attention to his low-lying country's situation in 2021, by standing in knee-deep seawater to deliver a speech for the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow.
The proximity of the threat of climate change means it's often high on Pacific Islands' priority lists, but can the same be said for New Zealand?
Senior research fellow at the University of Canterbury Nick Smith has co-authored a discussion paper, asking if the recent debate on New Zealand's potential involvement in AUKUS Pillar 2 strikes the right balance.
The paper argues the debate "misses the bigger picture" - limiting the focus on the "true existential threat to New Zealand and the Pacific which is not China's rise but rather climate change".
"For many leaders in the Pacific, their perception of climate change is more of an issue than China," Smith told RNZ.
"Naturally, that's an uneasy thing for New Zealand and Australia because it stirs our natural paternalism because we see the Pacific as a collection of much smaller states.
"There's a perception of the Pacific being vulnerable and what I would say to that is that these Pacific Island countries have been very geopolitically adept for a long time."
Smith said there was consensus in the Blue Pacific region that the biggest existential threat was climate change.
"There's a feeling in Pacific Island countries that the 'Indo-Pacific' idea relegates climate change to below the threat of China but the Pacific attitude is if we are to be serious about climate change then we need China on board as well.
"We can't have China as an enemy or as an antagonist. Climate change is such a pressing issue that this cold war mentality style geopolitics that we're seeing an increase in focus on doesn't help the ultimate goal of combating climate change."
It was only a few days ago in Tonga that United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres criticised governments - like New Zealand - for overseeing new oil and gas exploration, saying these governments were "signing away our future".
Labour leader Chris Hipkins said Prime Minister Luxon would no doubt be asked some hard questions this week.
"I imagine he'll get some pretty robust feedback about New Zealand's walking back on climate change action. That's something that's incredibly important for our Pacific neighbours.
"They do think that it's really important that New Zealand leads from the front on issues around climate change and I suspect he'll get quite a bit of feedback on that."
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters - who briefly met António Guterres on his way to Tonga - is unapologetic about the coalition's agenda.
"You're not signing away your future... there's always been a recognition on this matter that there's a transition period.
"The idea that you can go from one to the other is going to see a massive cessation of energy supply, total collapse of business, massive hunger and starvation around the world and the end of civilisation as we know it. Those are the facts," he said.
"Now, what we're trying to get to with this transition is use the utilities we've got to get us out the other end in a timeframe which we in this coalition government agree on.
"Nothing's changed about that so let's not having any alarmism going on on the basis of some comment that the Secretary-General might have made."
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon anticipated climate change would be one of many topics discussed in Tonga this week.
"I think predominantly New Caledonia will be a key issue for leaders to be talking about, particularly at the end of the week, but there are other issues around banking, around climate change and around regional security."
Asked if he agreed climate change was the "true existential threat to New Zealand and the Pacific" he was quick to answer.
"Yeah I do, yeah I do, yup."
Lifting the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration in New Zealand was signed and sealed in National's coalition agreement with New Zealand First and will be delivered by the end of this year.
Luxon has a delicate dance ahead of him in Tonga this week as he works to square this with his own belief that climate change is the "true existential threat to New Zealand and the Pacific".