French Senate President Gérard Larcher and National Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet. Photo: Sénat
Analysis - The chairs of both French Parliament's upper and lower Houses arrived in New Caledonia on Sunday night for a crucial three-day visit aiming for "dialogue and concertation" regarding the political and institutional future status of the French Pacific territory.
It is the first time in French history that both Presidents of the Houses, Yaël Braun-Pivet (National Assembly, lower house) and Gérard Larcher (Senate, upper house) are paying such a joint visit.
It comes almost six months to the day after violent and deadly riots broke out in New Caledonia, causing 13 fatalities, hundreds of injured, burning and looting of several hundred businesses, and an estimated €2.2 billion in damages.
The riots followed initial protest and demonstrations against a French plan to push for a constitutional amendment that would have changed the conditions of eligibility to vote at local provincial elections, allowing citizens born in New Caledonia before 1998, and those who have been residing there for an uninterrupted ten years, to cast their votes.
The controversial and highly-sensitive change was perceived as an attempt to reduce the political impact of indigenous Kanak voters.
But the new French Prime Minister Michel Barnier confirmed in September that the constitutional amendment has been abandoned.
It is now also confirmed that New Caledonia's provincial elections, initially scheduled to be held in May 2024, then postponed to not later than mid-December 2024, will finally take place not later than 30 November 2025, following an endorsement by New Caledonia's Congress, the French Senate, and the French National Assembly.
This provides more time for political stakeholders to engage in talks concerning New Caledonia's long-term political future status vis-à-vis France.
In his maiden speech in September, Barnier also announced the joint parliamentary heads' visit.
Since May, France has injected an estimated four €400m into New Caledonia, mainly to keep the near-collapse economy and public services afloat.
This came on top of the €1.5b devoted to New Caledonia each year, in "normal" circumstances.
Law in order has since returned in most parts of New Caledonia, including the Greater Nouméa area, where most of the damage was done. But pockets of tensions remain, especially near the capital Nouméa.
Over the past few weeks, New Caledonia was also at the centre of attention from newly-appointed François-Noël Buffet, who travelled there to reiterate France's commitment.
Later in October, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) fact-finding mission also visited to get a first-hand account on the situation, with the view of reporting to the next PIF leaders' summit in Solomon Islands in 2025.
During their three-day visit, Larcher and Braun-Pivet also intend to meet stakeholders in the fields of politics, trade unions, the town mayors, the economy, and civil society.
They will also be hosted and deliver an address at a special session at New Caledonia's Congress.
French National Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet. Photo: Assemblée Nationale
'To help, with humility'
In an interview with French National newspaper Le Monde, Larcher and Braun-Pivet, both described as highly knowledgeable characters on New Caledonia's issues, said they travelled to New Caledonia "to help, with humility".
Braun-Pivet said France has to stand at New Caledonia's side "so that it can invent its future".
"If we manage to find a new status with all of New Caledonia's players, I am very confident that the [French] Parliament will endorse it", she told Le Monde.
Larcher said the political response also has to take into account the economic situation.
He said that at this stage, in New Caledonia, there were two "dreams": a French New Caledonia and an independent New Caledonia.
"And to see how those two dreams can combine into a 'shared dream'...an innovative and lasting institutional response has to be invented", the Senate's President elaborated.
'New method' required
Larcher said a "new method" was required in talks with local political stakeholders so that a new approach can be identified towards "a very advanced autonomy, without severing ties with the French Republic".
The challenge is high, following three referendums held in New Caledonia over the past five years.
All of those three consultations resulted in a majority of votes in favour of keeping New Caledonia part of France.
However, the results of the last referendum, late 2021, took place following a major boycott on the pro-independence side.
Those referendums were part of a process described by the 1998 Nouméa Accord.
The ageing agreement also described, as the next step, inclusive talks to arrive at an agreement that would effectively write the next chapter in New Caledonia's history.
Since 2022, despite attempts to hold such comprehensive talks, it has not yet been possible to get all parties around the same table.
Any possible agreement resulting from those talks would de facto serve as a blueprint for a text that would replace the Nouméa Accord.
Moderates and radicals: fractures within FLNKS
The situation is further compounded by grave differences with both the pro-France and the pro-independence camps.
In the pro-independence camp, in the forty-year-old FLNKS umbrella (Kanak Socialist National Liberation Front), what has emerged as the more radical group of parties, especially the Union Calédonienne (UC), the dominant view is to favour a fast independence.
A UC ally within FLNKS is the RDO (Rassemblement Démocratique Océanien).
In 2023, a few months before the riots, UC set up what it called the CCAT (Field Action Coordination Cell) which in turn paved the way to organise marches and protests that later degenerated into the May 2023 riots.
But within the FLNKS, the more moderate pro-independence parties such as the PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and UPM (Melanesian Progressist Union) at the time distanced themselves from UC's approach.
At the latest FLNKS gathering, late August, UPM and PALIKA did not attend.
UC then granted FLNKS membership to several other parties and trade unions, as well as the CCAT.
It also decided to appoint CCAT Head Christian Téin (currently serving pre-trial jail in mainland France) as FLNKS President.
UPM and PALIKA then said they "did not recognise themselves" in this new FLNKS format and therefore did not feel committed to any new direction taken by the umbrella.
Local media reported last week that PALIKA and UPM no longer took part in any FLNKS meeting since 1 October 2024.
PALIKA spokesman Jean-Pierre Djaïwé delivers opening address at the party’s Congress in Païta, Kaala-Gomen as New Caledonia President Louis Mapou (right) listens. 9 November 2024. Photo: NC la 1ère
'Shared sovereignty' or 'independence-association'
The two moderate pro-independence parties have for years openly stated that while accessing full sovereignty remained a key element, they favoured a "shared sovereignty" with France, sometimes also termed "independence-association".
And that prior to this, they remained committed to taking part in any round table, PALIKA spokesman Jean-Pierre Djaïwé said at the weekend.
"We will keep on talking with anti-independence forces", UPM President Victor Tutugoro told local media at the weekend.
Both UPM and PALIKA were holding their respective Congresses at the weekend.
They were to officially announce what would be their new position regarding their relationship to the "new" FLNKS: either to remain members or to split altogether.
During recent talks with French Overseas minister Buffet, the preferred format, on their part, seems to be that of holding the banner of their caucus within New Caledonia's Congress, the UNI (Union Nationale pour l'Indépendance) and no longer that of FLNKS.
"It seems difficult to start again with the structure that called for destruction", said Tutugoro, referring to the new, UC-dominated FLNKS.