By Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy and Edward Wu, CNN
The poll come as large numbers of voters report having already cast ballots. Photo: Brendan SMIALOWSKI and Patrick T. Fallon / AFP
In the critical Southwest battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump run near even in the race for the White House, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.
The findings come as large numbers of voters report having already cast ballots and the pool of those open to changing their mind shrinks.
Harris holds 48 percent support among likely voters in Arizona, according to the poll, to 47 percent for Trump. In Nevada, 48 percent of likely voters support Trump and 47 percent back Harris. Those 1-point margins fall within each poll's margin of sampling error, finding no clear leader in either state.
The surveys find voters' views largely set on who would better handle top issues, while on a range of key attributes, neither candidate has convinced a critical mass of voters that they're the better choice. Voters in both states have at best a narrow preference for which candidate cares more about people like them, shares their vision of the country or would put the country's interests above their own self-interest.
The Nevada poll suggests little change in the state of the race there since late August, but in Arizona, the new results point to a shift in Harris' favour. The new poll finds Harris improving there with core Democratic constituencies such as women, Latino voters and younger voters. The shift is notably concentrated among women, who now break for Harris by 16 points, while men continue to favour Trump by a 14-point margin.
Harris' edge with women is a bit tighter in Nevada (51 percent support her, 46 percent Trump). That closer margin is largely driven by the relative lack of a gender gap among White likely voters in the state: Trump has a 15-point lead over Harris among White men (56 percent to 41 percent) and a 12-point lead among White women (54 percent to 42 percent).
Hispanic likely voters in Nevada split about evenly between Harris and Trump (48 percent support Harris, 47 percent Trump). Harris does hold a wide lead there among voters younger than 35, though: 53 percent support her versus 39 percent for Trump.
Independent voters in both states split roughly evenly between Harris and Trump. In Arizona, 45 percent support Trump to 43 percent for Harris, a 6-point improvement in support for the vice president since August. In Nevada, independent likely voters divide 46 percent Harris to 43 percent Trump, about the same as in August.
The Democratic nominees for US Senate in each state appear to have the upper hand. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego bests Republican Kari Lake 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the race to succeed retiring independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and in Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leads in her reelection bid against Republican challenger Sam Brown 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters.
Further down the ballot, a vote in Arizona to establish a fundamental right to an abortion in the state's constitution has broad support: 60 percent of likely voters say they would vote in favour of it, and just 39 percent would oppose it.
Both states have robust early and mail-in ballot voting, and according to the poll, 55 percent of likely voters in Arizona and 42 percent in Nevada say they have already voted. In both states, more registered Republicans have cast ballots so far than registered Democrats. In Arizona, that still translates into a Harris advantage among those banked votes (53 percent of those who say they already voted support her compared with 44 percent for Trump), but in Nevada, those who've already voted tilt in the former president's favour (52 percent Trump to 46 percent Harris).
Though both candidates are making late campaign stops across Arizona and Nevada, more than 9 in 10 likely voters in both states say they have already made up their minds about who they'll support. In both states, 92 percent say they are locked in, with 8 percent potentially persuadable.
Likely voters in Arizona and Nevada are closely divided when asked to weigh the importance of the candidates' stances on the issues against their leadership traits and approach to the presidency, with just over half prioritizing issue positions (53% in Nevada, 52% in Arizona), and just under half leadership traits (47 percent in Nevada, 48 percent in Arizona).
Harris supporters across both states largely say leadership traits are more important (55 percent in Nevada, 54 percent in Arizona), while most Trump backers (59 percent in Nevada, 58 percent in Arizona) say they prioritize the candidates' stands on the issues that matter.
In both states, the polls find now-familiar divides on which issues each candidate is more trusted to handle, echoing trends that have been largely consistent in national and state polling throughout the fall. Likely voters trust Trump over Harris to handle immigration (by a 14-point margin in Arizona and 15 points in Nevada), the economy (by 11 points in Arizona, 9 points in Nevada) and foreign policy (by 8 points in Arizona, 7 points in Nevada). Harris is more trusted on abortion and reproductive rights in both states (by 16 points in Arizona, and 21 points in Nevada) and also holds a 5-point edge in Arizona on protecting democracy, with Nevada voters about evenly split (46 percent trust Harris, 45 percent Trump).
In Arizona, likely voters are split over which candidate cares more about people like them (45 percent say Harris does, 41 percent Trump). But the vice president has the advantage as more honest and trustworthy than Trump, 44 percent to 35 percent, and, by a narrow margin, on putting the country's interests above her own (46 percent say Harris, 41 percent Trump). The former president holds narrow leads on bringing the change the country needs (45 percent Trump, 40 percent Harris) and sharing voters' vision of the country (44 percent Trump, 39 percent Harris).
In Nevada, likely voters give Harris the advantage on honesty (44 percent to 36 percent) and caring about people like them (46 percent to 40 percent), and call Trump more likely to bring needed change (47 percent to 41 percent). They're about evenly split on which candidate would put the country's interests ahead of their own (46 percent say Harris, 44 percent Trump) and on who shares their vision (44 percent each).
Roughly one-fifth of voters in each state say that neither Harris nor Trump can be described as honest and trustworthy, higher than the shares who reject both candidates on any other issue or personal trait.
In both states, confidence that ballots will be accurately cast and counted has grown since late August. Roughly 8 in 10 likely voters in Nevada (81 percent, up 10 points since August) and three-quarters in Arizona (76 percent, up 8 points) say they are at least somewhat confident that ballot casting and counting will be done accurately. That increase comes more from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (up 19 points in Nevada, 12 points in Arizona) than from Democrats and Democratic leaners.
Despite those increases, Republicans and Republican leaners remain far less trusting of the ballot process than are Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in both states. In Arizona, 69 percent of Democratic-aligned likely voters say they are very confident in the system, but that drops to 21 percent among Republican-aligned voters. The gap is even wider in Nevada, where 71 percent of Democratic-leaning likely voters are very confident compared with 16 percent of Republican-aligned likely voters.
Interviews were conducted 21-26 October, 2024, online and by telephone with registered voters, including 781 voters in Arizona and 683 in Nevada. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year's election. Results among likely voters in Arizona have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points; it is 4.6 points among likely voters in Nevada.
- CNN