Ian Johnson: Are major changes on the way for China?

When the Chinese Communist Party elite gather in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sunday for the 20th Party Congress, all will not be as it seems. 

For more than 30 years, leaders have stepped down after two terms and handed the power of the General Secretary to a younger successor. But not Xi Jinping. He's expected to be given an unprecedented third term - another five years, as the most powerful man in one of the most powerful countries on earth.

Meanwhile rare protests attacking Xi and Covid restrictions took place in Beijing just this week.

Ian Johnson is a senior fellow for Chinese studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York and has won a Pulitzer Prize for his writing about China.

He tells Saturday Morning's Kim Hill that 2022 marks a huge upheaval in Chinese politics - one that we're going to feel over the coming years.

If elected for a third term, Xi will become China's longest lasting leader since Mao Zedong.

"We've had a period ... when Chinese leaders changed every 10 years and it seemed as if there was a predictable political system in China.

"Now we're back to an earlier era of Communist Party rule where we have one person who rules indefinitely. I think it adds uncertainty to China.

"It's clear he's wanted (the third term) for about five years, I think we've known that day is coming, but it's still going to be pretty significant to see that happen."

Xi is likely to continue the hardline policies which have drawn concern around the world.

As China's most powerful leader since Mao, he is determined to make his own imprint. There are differences, however.

Mao was a "charismatic figure," Johnson said, whereas Xi Jinping is not.

"There really was a cult of personality around him."

However, Xi does envision himself a pivotal figure in history, Johnson said.

"I think he sees himself like Mao in terms of being one of the most important figures in the People's Republic of China."

Xi worked far outside of Beijing in other parts of China which kept him out of political battles as he built his career, a tactic that worked well in consolidating power later.

"He really implemented his vision with a lot more power and authority than his predecessors were able to."

Xi swept into power promising to do something about the corrupt reputation that the party had developed.

"For most people in China, this is very popular and has made him a popular figure in the country."

Xi has presented himself as "a visionary leader who's able to restore China to greatness in a way his predecessors weren't able to."

He'll say "only I can get the job done and make China great again, sort of like the Donald Trump of China in some ways."

"He's a more capable politician than Donald Trump was, he's not as self-destructive, he's much more disciplined.

"But he is in some ways a populist who's been able to make people think that China is downtrodden and it has to be raised up again and he's the person to do it, so in that sense there are some parallels."

Unfortunately, Xi seems unaware or doesn't care how his harsher policies are viewed.

"Xi doesn't realise how this has misfired and that China's reputation around the world has plummeted. ... In most prosperous democracies the view of China has changed radically over the past decade.

"Almost nobody talks about China being a partner anymore, but that was quite common a decade ago."

China's zero Covid policy has drawn a lot of criticism and rare protests, and if the country continues to hold some of the world's strictest restrictions those voices may get louder, Johnson said.

"The vast majority of people probably don't feel it yet but it is creeping in."

"Overall ... I think for most people the censorship still works.

"But there is a growing number of people I think who are a little more plugged in, intellectuals, dissidents in some ways, a nationwide movement of people who are making underground films, samizdat publications that challenge the party on its control of history.

"And this is sort of one of the pillars of the party's legitimacy, that history has anointed the party to save China and it's done such a great job saving the country that it deserves to stay in power."

"... But overall, there's nothing like grass-roots protests that are going to challenge the party in any meaningful way in the coming years."