Is New Zealand pulling its weight on climate change in the Pacific?

Analysis - Just how much New Zealand is pulling its weight on climate finance in the Pacific is a lingering question after the 53rd Pacific Islands Forum.

This week's flagship event was the 53rd forum and Christopher Luxon's first, and while New Zealand plays a key role in the summit it took a back seat on a new climate and disaster resilience fund.

The PRF (Pacific Resilience Facility) is the first Pacific-led climate and disaster resilience financing facility, and has an initial target of $US500 million in capitalisation by 1 January 2026 and a longer term goal of $US1.5 billion.

Australia, Saudi Arabia, China and the United States have pledged millions to the fund and the forum's dialogue partners have been urged to make contributions to ensure the targets are met.

New Zealand will make a pledge soon, though Luxon said the government wanted a better idea of how the facility will be run before it commits any money.

"We're well advanced. We're well supportive of it. We just wanted to make sure that we had good clarity around the operation of the fund and then we'll have more to say very shortly."

It sounds reasonable, but for a problem like climate change in a region like the Pacific, time is of the essence and Aotearoa may already be behind.

Pacific climate groups released a report this week that found New Zealand's existing climate finance commitment of $325 million a year was well below its estimated fair share of between $558m and $953m annually, based on national emissions.

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The coalition's cuts have also cast doubt on whether this current level of funding would continue, though Luxon has stressed money for climate aid has survived his spending reprioritisation exercise.

Dollars aside, the coalition is widely considered to be taking the country backwards on climate action; something that was now putting New Zealand's ability to meet our climate targets in jeopardy.

Luxon was confident and convincing when speaking to his government's re-introduction of oil and gas exploration; clearly articulating the case for the reversal in an energy crisis in a way that will resonate with New Zealand voters.

While Pacific leaders may not have raised the policy with him personally, it is undoubtedly a step backwards for climate mitigation, with government analysis estimating that reversing the oil and gas exploration ban will result in an extra year's worth of emissions by 2050.

The government's messaging on climate change was not helped by Minister for Foreign Affairs Winston Peters, who questioned the scientific consensus on climate science before leaving Tonga this week.

Luxon was quick to clarify the pair were on the same page about global warming, but it was an unnecessary and unhelpful distraction.

One of the more concrete outcomes out of this year's forum was the announcement of a new pacific policing initiative that will create a police training facility in Brisbane and establish a support group that can be deployed across the region.

It was overshadowed by shades of geostrategic competition in the region after RNZ captured US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell telling Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese America had "given [Australia] the lane" on the programme, who then joked about going "halfsies".

Albanese was left red-faced, later criticising RNZ's ethics for recording the so-called "private conversation".

Though it was him who left his Pacific counterparts red-faced later that day; arriving late for the family photograph and leaving PIF leaders, many of whom are older, waiting in the hot sun.

The people of Tonga pulled out all the stops to host this year's forum and it was hoped the event would inject cash into an economy that has struggled since the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption.

Driving around the island you can still see the damage from the tsunami; debris hanging on power lines, concrete slabs where homes once were and a derelict luxury resort on the coastline.

It is a reminder of just how exposed Pacific nations are to natural disasters, weather events and the impacts of climate change.