Photo: AFP / MIGUEL MEDINA
Fourteen tests, but how many wins? That's the question after the All Blacks' test schedule for the year was announced yesterday, one that will take them to somewhere new, some places old and a couple to make up for the lack of home tests last year.
NZ Rugby chief executive Mark Robinson was on hand at the Auckland office to talk through the list of tests but found himself spending most of his time talking about one in particular: the 19 July clash with Fiji, laid down for Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego.
The All Blacks' 2024 schedule. Photo: NZ Rugby
"Looking at the United States is a multi-faceted approach," he said, clearly indicating that the US and its yet-to-be-unlocked rugby riches remains firmly on NZR's radar.
"There's more activity we're looking at, as it relates to Super teams, just other sort of general strategic commercial opportunity using diplomacy and trade. We know the government is hugely interested in how sport can create opportunities in trade and other areas."
The wisdom of chasing US money is something that will surely get a decent go over closer to the San Diego test, but the other main talking points from the schedule is that Sky Stadium gets two tests, including a Bledisloe Cup match. That's a departure from the norm for the All Blacks, who have secured the trophy in at Eden Park for the last decade.
Rieko Ioane celebrates scoring a try against South Africa in 2017, the last time the All Blacks played in Cape Town. Photo: PHOTOSPORT
Then there's a trip to Cape Town, a move of extreme generosity by South Africa Rugby that would have left NZR slightly gobsmacked. The Mother City is the All Blacks' most successful venue in South Africa (eight test wins over the Springboks and two losses) and the team enjoys incredible support from the local community, due to what the fixture between the two teams represented in the apartheid era.
"Ultimately it's their decision," Robinson said.
"They love to see as a proud rugby nation, the ability to take the Boks and their key competitors right around the country. So I presume that's factoring into the decision making."
So, looking into our crystal ball we can make a few predictions. Firstly, it looks as though Scott Robertson will be heading to South Africa with some good wins under his belt - England won't be up to much at the end of their long season and will be without influential figures Owen Farrell and Courtney Lawes. All due respect to Fiji, but the San Diego adventure/marketing campaign will be a win too.
All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson during a media interview at the Pullman Hotel in Auckland on Tuesday 9 January 2024. Photo: Andrew Cornaga/www.photosport.nz
Then to Africa and while the prospect of Ellis Park seems daunting, remember that's where Ian Foster's All Blacks won their most pressurised test outside of the Rugby World Cup. The virtual home game in Cape Town follows, so even if one of those tests is dropped, it's still a probable 5-1 start to the season.
Two home tests against Argentina you'd think would result in wins, then there's a Bledisloe Cup series against Joe Schmidt's Wallabies. Schmidt will have them in better shape because they can't possibly get any worse, but really it's hard to see them winning either of those tests despite the All Blacks' shocking record in Wellington over the last six seasons.
You can split the season there until the end of year tour starts, which isn't that long at all, but by that stage we're really going to know a lot about this All Black side. We'll also know plenty about their opponents, most notably Ireland and France.
Those two go at each other this weekend in the Six Nations, however by the time the All Blacks get to them it should be apparent if either are the same powerful forces who pushed around everyone - until the World Cup, that is.
It's a long season, that's for sure. But with most of those games falling into the category of regulation wins for the All Blacks, there really isn't any excuse as to why it won't be a successful one.