New Zealand / Covid 19

New subvariants will likely lead to second Omicron wave - epidemiologist

17:02 pm on 4 June 2022

Epidemiologist Michael Baker says he is not surprised new Omicron subvariants have been found in the community.

Michael Baker said it was not surprising the new strains are spreading through New Zealand, because they are more infectious. Photo:

In its Friday update, the Ministry of Health reported four cases of BA.5 and one case of BA.4, the first time for each in the community.

It also reported seven cases of the BA.2.12.1 subvariant in the community yesterday.

Baker said the real question was whether either would become the dominant strain in New Zealand.

"Initially we can't be exactly sure what they'll do in New Zealand, but certainly in countries overseas they're seeing these other subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 and another one BA.2.12.1 starting to take over from those that came before."

The new variants were more infectious, and would probably lead to a second wave of infection, as has happened overseas, he said.

The Ministry of Health said wastewater results and community cases suggested the BA.4/5 and BA.2.12.1 Omicron subvariants were circulating in parts of the community in New Zealand.

The subvariants had been detected at New Zealand's border for many weeks and their presence in the community was not unexpected, the ministry said.

Early data suggested that the BA.2.12.1 variant was slightly more transmissible than BA.2, which was currently the dominant subvariant circulating in New Zealand, the ministry said.

There is some clinical data to suggest that BA.5 and BA.4 may be more transmissible than BA.2, but no data suggests they caused more severe illness, the ministry said.

Saturday's Covid-19 update made no mention of any further community cases of the new variants.