Gold kiwifruit growers have had outstanding returns in recent years, on average receiving nearly $178,000 per hectare last season, but a handbrake is being put on future development.
A big supply of gold kiwifruit is causing the exporter Zespri to halve the volume of gold licence it will offer for tender next March.
In recent years it has released 700 hectares of SunGold licence, also called G3, for orchardists to grow annually, but Zespri chief executive Dan Mathieson said demand for the fruit needed to stay ahead of supply so only 350 hectares will be available next year.
He said there had been a rapid increase in per hectare production and border closures due to Covid-19 meant a shortfall of people to handle the crop.
Mathieson said all the fruit will be sold, and strong demand was forecast around the world in the medium to long term.
The industry was affected by shipping disruption, supply chain challenges, a lack of good people coming into the industry and post-harvest capacity constraints.
"So as long as we see those things recover over the next one to two years then we'll be able to increase the hectares that we licence to growers across the industry," he said.
Zespri is not releasing any licence for organic gold fruit next year as it has enough supply to meet demand with a number of conventional gold growers converting to organics.
The organisation is forecasting a licence release of between 350 and 700 hectares a year, up to 2026.
The industry requires 20,000 people a year from orchard workers to post harvest staff, shipping and marketing.
Mathieson said New Zealanders made up nearly half the workforce and they actively try to recruit locally.
But this year, with no backpackers and fewer Pacific workers though the RSE scheme, they were 4500 people short, and next harvest a shortfall of 6000 workers is predicted.