The University of Waikato has revealed a big jump in local enrolments and an even bigger drop in foreign enrolments.
It is starting the year with 1200 fewer international students and 740 more New Zealanders than last year.
The university's vice-chancellor, Neil Quigley, said it would make a deficit this year but the 9.7 percent rise in domestic enrolments would help soften the impact of the fall in foreign students.
"It's still the case that we're looking at substantially less revenue than we would have expected had we not had the Covid pandemic," he said.
Professor Quigley said the university had been changing its staffing for several years and would not have to make significant cuts because of the downturn in enrolments.
He said the Tertiary Education Commission had agreed to fund the same number of New Zealand students at Waikato as in 2020 so the university would have to seek approval for the increase.
"They have indicated to the universities that they have the capacity to fund above the investment plan where the growth justifies that so we'd be hoping we could make a case to the Tertiary Education Commission to get our growth funded in full," he said.
Professor Quigley said this year's big increase in local enrolments was partly due to advertising beyond the university's traditional region and into areas like Auckland and Wellington.
He said the pandemic also played a role because young people could not travel overseas.
"The job market is probably a less important factor at the moment because there's a reasonably low level of unemployment," he said.
He said the university had a near 20 percent increase in students transferring from other tertiary institutions, probably because of the impact of last year's pandemic.
"As a result of the lockdown experience last year [they] have decided that they'll complete their degree a bit closer to home," he said.
Quigley said Māori students would account for 26.5 percent of the university's students this year and Pasifika students for 8 percent.
The University of Auckland has also forecast a net drop in enrolments this year, but Otago, Victoria, Canterbury and Lincoln are starting the year with more students because their domestic enrolments have more than offset falling international enrolments.