(File image). Photo: RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly
The first independent scrutiny report of New Zealand's progress on climate targets says there is an urgent need to strengthen government plans to cut pollutants.
Otherwise, New Zealand would not be on track to stay inside its binding caps on planet-heating gases.
The assessment by the Climate Change Commission highlighted agriculture and transport as particular risk areas for blowing emissions caps, saying they needed further work to get emissions down.
New Zealand has a series of binding budgets for lowering greenhouse gases, which both major parties have committed to.
The end goal was getting to net zero carbon emissions and 24-47 percent lower methane emissions by 2050, contributing to global efforts to rein in rising temperatures, which broke new heat records again this year.
Despite government assurances that the country's first emissions budget will be met, today's independent assessment said that first budget might in danger, although current projections were still consistent with meeting that first-ever budget.
The main issue was uncertainty about how many trees have been felled, because official figures were out of date.
The commission said more recent trends suggested deforestation was higher than previously thought, and that could mean the country exceeds its first budget, from 2022-2025. The true picture would not become clear until new information was released in December, just a year before the end of the budget period. Other factors were also creating risk, such as transport emissions rising.
The report highlighted why it was risky relying too much on forestry to meet goals, rather than cutting emissions.
It urged the government to give itself some wriggle-room and increase its chances of staying within budget, by some quick actions on cutting emissions.
The report said one way forward would be capitalising on areas where New Zealand has been doing well, including electric vehicle adoption and decarbonising heavy industry, to lock in the gains and get emissions down more.
New Zealand has been doing well with electric vehicle adoption, the report says (file image). Photo: 123RF
It says it was too late now to meet the first budget by planting more trees, because they would not grow quickly enough.
Planting more trees also would not rescue the second budget, if the country failed to cut emissions, the report said.
However, it said extra trees planted now could contribute to future targets, once they had time to grow big enough.
The commission said New Zealand was lucky to have "the cost effective option" of planting trees to go further and faster on climate.
But it said the best way to meet climate goals was "stopping climate-polluting gases in the first place", for example cleaner transport and cleaner power for industry.
Good news
The good news in the report was that New Zealand's emissions have turned a corner, falling consistently every year since 2019.
Every sector lowered emissions, but energy and industry achieved by far the biggest drops.
GDP also grew much more than emissions since 1990, showing the economy could move ahead without pollution rising in lockstep.
However, some of the gains were fickle or random - like the weather or economic conditions - and more lasting change was needed, according to the assessment.
The commission also noted New Zealand has one of the high ratios of emissions to GDP in the developed world.
The scrutiny report was the first of its kind, and the commission would release them annually from now on - helping people hold the government of the day to account by giving an independent view of the country's progress.
Today's report highlighted several risks with government policy.
One of the risks with government policy is insufficient action on farming, the report says (file image). Photo: 123rf
One was insufficient action on farming or transport. Because New Zealand has a specific methane target for 2030, it could only be met by lowering methane from landfills or farming, the report stressed - other sectors could not make up for it if methane reductions fail.
"The agriculture and transport sectors show the largest risks, and insufficient action to reduce emissions in these sectors will put the second and third emissions budgets at risk," the report said.
Another was the policy of relying heavily on pricing carbon to prompt people to clean up their actions, under the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
The report said the ETS was "essential" but could not meet targets on its own, and there were barriers to people choosing lower emissions options.
The report said barriers like access to capital could be addressed if the government wanted the ETS to drive down emissions effectively.
It also said the government could achieve more by tightening up the market, particularly a "large and uncertain" surplus of pollution permits.
Second and third budgets 'at risk'
Two weeks ago the government's Emissions Reduction Plan revealed the country was on track to miss its third emissions budget (2031-2035), without new policies to drive change. The second budget (2026-2030) was on track, though less comfortably than it was a year earlier.
Today's independent scrutiny report said there were "significant risks" to meeting the second and third budgets, and to meeting the 2030 target of cutting methane from animals and landfills by 10 percent.