The Transport Agency is well on the way to rolling out many more, much smarter, and more invasive cameras - and ditching entirely the label "speed camera" and replacing it with "safety cameras" in a bid to win hearts, minds and driving habits.
This is the second of two reports on Waka Kotahi expanding the camera network on New Zealand's roads; the first ran yesterday.
When?
A rollout in three-month phases would bring in new red-light cameras first - and may have already begun.
The business case suggests a timeframe of April 2022 - April 2023, though elsewhere Waka Kotahi suggests it will be mid-2023 before the system is ready for transferring old cameras to it.
The 45 existing red-light cameras - most owned by Auckland Transport - are the least effective of any of the old cameras.
New mobile cams are planned for July-October next year, and by December 2023 the network would be ready. More cameras would be added in each year.
"This proposal will expand the camera network significantly... (fixed, red-light, average speed, and mobile) by 2030," the initial business case said.
It suggested there was only one supplier in the market, which made it virtually impossible to follow the "saturation" option.
Fatal flaws toppled the most extreme option, including that it would be bad for Te Ao Māori, and also the second-most intense option, which Treasury would have had to fund, it refused - "Minister and the Treasury has said no."
Where?
One of the less ambitious options was to target the top 100 riskiest road corridors, but the business case settles on medium-to-high-risk roads.
A risk analysis of camera sites was done in 2021.
The business case assumed having 3.6 cameras "per average speed corridor".
The total costs were blanked out.
The agency refused to specify the number of new cameras to be installed by 2030; it said this was to protect Ministers and staff from "improper pressure or harassment". RNZ has asked it to reconsider that.
"The preferred option is affordable" under the National Land Transport funding cycle, however, alternative funding from out of infringement fees, cost recovery, ACC, and new Crown funding were being looked at.
Road warning signs would alert drivers to fixed cameras for the first time, to up the deterrent effect; mobiles would not be signposted.
Why?
Waka Kotahi looked at other countries cameras per capita, and concluded "NZ has the lowest number of safety cameras on its network" - at a half of the UK's, and five times fewer than Sweden.
This was compounded by very low penalties.
Reversing that, to achieve an "anywhere, anytime" camera deterrent would cut average speeds by between 20 and 30 percent, and increase driver compliance with speed limits by 60 percent.
That was calculated to cut the road toll by up to 5.5 percent by 2030, saving 114 lives a year and more than $500 million of indirect costs from death and serious injuries.
The "maximum, diamond" option that was out of reach, was estimated to cut the toll up to 8.5 percent.
It scored a six for cutting the toll; the preferred approach scored 4.8 - still four times more effective than doing the "minimum".
The preferred option was rated three times easier to get done than the maximum, and far and away the best for value for money (12.8, v maximum and minimum options both at 3.2).
In a couple of cases, the options had the "fatal flaw" of taking core functions for the cameras and infringement processing off NZTA.
Even the preferred approach said: "Police will need some clarity on how a 50 percent prosecution model (outsourced) will work."
RNZ has asked for details around that.
The preferred approach still faced hurdles in consenting, "safety, and design" but "has a positive impact on social licence by making public aware of reduction" in the road toll.
The cost-benefit ratio was not entirely clear, but the report listed major gains in network safety, driver behaviour and compliance, cutting emissions as people slowed down, improving emergency response and improving road network efficiency.
The business case referred to Waka Kotahi agreeing on data sharing with Police. At present, 11 police staff handled 1100 safety camera prosecutions - as opposed to the one million routine infringements - annually.