(File image) Photo: 123RF
New Zealand needs to "get off the sidelines" and start making deals with other countries or it will fail to meet its 2030 international climate target.
That is the conclusion of a new report from the Motu thinktank.
Countries such as Switzerland and Singapore have signed deals with other nations, paying for their emissions reductions.
For example, Switzerland is paying for e-buses in Bangkok. The carbon savings will help meet Switzerland's target under the Paris Agreement.
New Zealand's Paris Agreement target was designed with the intention of making similar purchases, but governments have not followed through by sealing any deals.
That is despite the target being set dozens of millions of tonnes higher than any government analysis has concluded New Zealand could realistically achieve at home.
The report concludes it would be in New Zealand's interests to get moving.
The deals are expected to cost upwards of $3 billion to cover the shortfall in domestic emissions cuts for the period from 2021-2030, but costs could quadruple if the government leaves it until close to 2030 to make a move, foreign affairs officials have previously warned Climate Change Minister Simon Watts.
Motu fellow and carbon trading expert Catherine Leining said the public had never had a proper explanation of the benefits and it was time they were included in the conversation.
"It's in our national interest as well as the global interest to do this," Leining said.
"Right now on current policies the world is on track for an increase of 3C above pre-industrial levels, and when we look at the cost-effective mitigation that's needed to put us on track for 1.5C by 2030, over three quarters of that lies in developing countries and they just don't have the resources to make that happen.
"The situation with climate change is too dire and we have to cooperate with other countries, additional to what we can do at home.
"New Zealand understood this when it committed to its [target], even in back in 2015 it knew the [contribution] it was committing to was more ambitious than what it could do at home, so it was seeking to boost ts contribution ...in order to move things the right direction."
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts has previously been warned that costs for the deals could quadruple if the government waits until close to 2030 to make a move. Photo: RNZ / Cole Eastham-Farrelly
The new paper from Motu Economic and Public Policy Research said the government had only two options: pursuing international co-operation, or failing to meet the target.
"It would really damage our credibility internationally if we pledged and failed to deliver on our pledge, and this now has implications for our trade agreements, particularly with the UK and EU but other countries as well, people are now watching this from a trade management perspective," Leining said.
Since it was first set in 2015, New Zealand's 2030 target under the Paris Agreement has been set at a level well above what the government thought it could achieve solely by cutting emissions here, for example by changing farming, transport or industry - at least well above what it thought it could do without disrupting the economy.
Originally up to 200 million tonnes of carbon reductions were expected to be needed from overseas to top up what government advisors thought New Zealand could feasibly do at home, though the figure has fallen to under 100 million.
The Climate Change Commission says the government could further reduce that by doing more to cut domestic emissions - but even doing extra would still get nowhere near the full amount the government has committed to.
New Zealand led the development of international trading rules at climate talks, and pressed hard to be allowed to purchase help from other countries.
The Motu paper looked at why, despite this, New Zealand is not among the 11 countries to have signed trading deals.
It identified several reasons why buying help is unpopular. Many environmentalists see it as cheating, after rich countries previously used "junk" credits purchased from other countries to replace real climate action. Others resent boosting other countries' economies, by spending taxpayer money offshore.
But Leining said the cost of making the purchases would still be less than the cost of one or two more climate-fuelled cyclones, like Gabrielle in 2023.
Since New Zealand was too small to solve climate change alone, it was in its interests to encourage countries to stick to their promises, she said.
"This idea that if we're doing something offshore we are avoiding our own obligation has to change," she said.
"If we want to meet our Paris Agreement targets, Aotearoa New Zealand is going to need to both cut emissions at home and fund emissions reductions in other countries, it is not an either or."
Leining said it was "very high risk" to wait to try to secure carbon offsets until 2030 or later, when other developed countries were "forging ahead" with now. By then, New Zealand might be left with the much more expensive option of buying help from other developed countries, she said.
"There have been officials working below the radar ... scoping out options, but they've never been given a negotiation mandate and they've never been given a funding mandate ... to actually deliver it."
Watts has previously agreed that the government cannot meet its Paris target without overseas help, and confirmed that the government remains committed to meeting the target.
But he has never publicly committed to purchasing climate action from other countries, saying people he talks to find it "unrealistic" and the government is "exploring all the options".
Government coalition partner New Zealand First has refused to confirm or deny whether it would back overseas purchases to enable meeting the target.