A week of twists and turns as the parties head into the home straight of the election. Photo: RNZ
Analysis - Chris Hipkins catches Covid and there's a blame game over his cancelled debate with Christopher Luxon. Another poll shows National will need NZ First to form a government and a newly-relevant Winston Peters goes in for some media bashing. Loose talk from Labour candidates gives National a new attack angle, and National confirms its top-of-the- line $250 a week tax relief package will reach only 3000 families.
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins came down with Covid-19 at the beginning of the week which forced him into isolation and caused the cancellation of The Press leaders debate in Christchurch.
That kicked off an irritable blame game, with Hipkins saying he had offered to hold it on any date following his five-day isolation, but National's Christopher Luxon had "pulled out" of their head-to-head clash.
That was because Luxon had said it was too close to the end of the campaign to reschedule, which brought a "chicken" response from Labour's health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall and a picture of Luxon in a yellow chicken suit.
Hipkins claimed National knew their poll numbers were coming down and wanted to minimise Luxon's exposure.
Luxon accused him of spreading misinformation. "I've already debated Chris Hipkins twice and I look forward to debating him again in the final debate on TVNZ next Thursday night," he said.
National said it had put up, as an alternative, a debate between the deputy leaders of the two parties - Nicola Willis vs Kelvin Davis - but didn't get a reply.
That wasn't surprising, there was no way Labour was going to put Davis up against Willis.
Labour said it had proposed finance spokesperson Grant Robertson as a stand-in, but National wasn't interested.
"This is another lie from Chris Hipkins," said National's campaign manager Chris Bishop in a much-publicised X (tweet). "Robertson was never put forward as a stand-in."
Organisers salvaged what they could, inviting the leaders of all the parties tracking to return to Parliament to a debate next week.
The leaders of NZ First, the Greens, ACT and Te Pati Maori accepted. They'll face an audience of more than 2000 in Christchurch Town Hall next Tuesday. It's being billed as "the final powerbrokers' debate" before polling day.
Luxon's statement last week that he would work with NZ First after the election, if he had to, gave leader Winston Peters renewed relevance and he appeared on TVNZ's Q&A and Newshub Nation.
The interviews didn't go well
"Two interviews in two days have seen the NZ First leader make personal attacks on journalists after struggling badly to answer questions about his policies and costings," said Newsroom in a detailed report on both interviews.
"He described Jack Tame (TVNZ) and Rebecca Wright (Three) as 'jumped up' and 'arrogant' respectively," the report said.
"Peters described Wright as 'ageist' and 'lazy' but went further on Tame, calling him a 'dirt merchant' and 'corrupt'."
The report quoted numerous interchanges and concluded: "The final exchange on Q&A had a dark tone. Peters suggested things would change if NZ First held the broadcasting portfolio after the election.
Tame: "is that a threat, Mr Peters?"
Peters: "No, it's a promise that you're going to have an operation that's much more improved than it is now."
Some journalists have claimed Winston Peters has been largely hostile to the media. Photo: Andrew Dalton - TVNZ
There's nothing new in Peters' media bashing tactics, he's been doing it for decades. People who don't like the media enjoy seeing him put the boot in.
This was mentioned by Vernon Small in a column published by Stuff earlier in the campaign.
"The media has already come in for its traditional share of shellacking, though it is hard to see him ever topping his description of a reporter as a 'smart-aleck, arrogant, quiche-eating, chardonnay-drinking, pinky-finger-pointing snobbery fart blossom'," Small said.
"Just in case anyone takes his media-bashing too seriously, they shouldn't. It is good vote-fodder, but Peters has long enjoyed journalists' company, much as sports rivals enjoy a drink and a yarn after a hard match."
Small was right about that, although the Q&A and Nation interviews were serious encounters which seemed to annoy Peters because he was pressed hard on policy details.
Broadcasting Minister Willie Jackson leapt in with a post on social media, the Herald reported.
"The astonishing abuse Winston Peters gave Jack Tame on TVNZ this morning highlights just how dangerous NZ First could be if they were part of government," Jackson said.
"Jack had an obligation to ask Winston the tough questions, yet all Winston did was smear Jack, smear TVNZ and deny the voters from hearing legitimate questions."
Peters told the Herald it wasn't worth his time responding to Jackson. "Willie's on his way out and he knows it."
There was considerable media attention paid to Peters this week, which can only be good for his party's chances regardless of whether the publicity is good or bad. He has become a man of the moment, and he's making the most of it.
Stuff's Andrea Vance described the timing of Luxon's statement about working with NZ First as "a spectacular piece of self-sabotage - two weeks from polling day, and National is now talking about Winston Peters… the furore gave NZ First's campaign so much oxygen it is now only a question of how many more voters Peters can hoover up once he passes the 5 percent threshold".
The latest poll gave it more oxygen, because it showed NZ First on track to win eight seats and Luxon would need it to form a government.
The 1News-Verian poll was released on Wednesday night.
"It's desperate times for Labour as New Zealanders' votes appear to be solidifying with just 10 days left until the election," 1News said in its report on the poll.
"It may also be wise for National leader Christopher Luxon to put New Zealand First leader Winston Peters' number on speed dial, with the poll showing Luxon will need New Zealand First to help form a government.
The poll showed both major parties steady in the party vote, with 36 percent for National and 26 percent for Labour.
Also steady since last week's poll were the Greens on 13 percent, NZ first on 6 percent and Te Pati Maori on 2 percent.
The only party that moved was ACT, which dropped two points to 10 percent.
Those results would give National 46 seats and ACT 13, a total 59 seats and needing two more for the most slender of majorities.
The left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori would have a total 53 seats.
ACT leader David Seymour said the vote trending down for the right bloc over the last four 1News-Veriant polls was "a huge worry for all of New Zealand".
ACT's poll ratings saw a drop as other parties' numbers remained largely unchanged. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver
"We need a stable, united government that's ready to cut wasteful spending (and) get your living costs under control from day one," he said.
The polls are also a huge worry for Labour, as RNZ's Katie Scotcher reported in her article 'Receding red wave could wash high-profile names out of Parliament'.
The red wave gave Labour a historic MMP majority in 2020, bringing in a huge caucus of 65 MPs.
"But that wave of support has since receded and Labour now faces a very different outcome this election, with some of its most high-profile names at risk of not making it back into Parliament," the report said.
"Recent predictions suggest Labour could be left with a caucus of 33, meaning more than 20 sitting MPs will not make it back.
"Depending on the party's success in electorates, some of Labour's biggest names - Andrew Little, David Parker, Adrian Rurawhe, Willie Jackson, Jan Tinetti - could be gone."
Loose talk this week by some of Labour's candidates gave National a new angle of attack and could indicate cracks in caucus discipline.
It was a vast exaggeration by National's Chris Bishop to say that Hipkins' colleagues were "circling" and he could be rolled, but it was negative publicity Labour didn't need in the final stages of the campaign.
The culprits were list MP and Wellington Central candidate Ibrahim Omer, who said during a debate Labour "had not given up" on the idea of a wealth tax despite Hipkins having ruled it out as long as he is the leader.
That report in the Herald forced Hipkins to say Omer was wrong, there were no discussions currently taking place on tax policy.
Omer clarified: "All I was trying to convey was if people want to look at (it) in the future they can, but it is not a policy for our next term."
Then there was Taieri MP Ingrid Leary, reported by RNZ, who said at a public meeting that while she backed Hipkins' call she would like to "leave a transparent and fairer tax system" as a legacy, including a capital gains tax.
She subsequently explained that she had conveyed to the meeting such taxes were not Labour policy.
Hipkins again had to intervene, saying Leary had made it absolutely clear Labour would not be introducing a wealth tax.
Bishop said the comments showed Hipkins' leadership could be on the line.
"Labour loves tax like a shark loves blood, and Hipkins' colleagues are circling," he said.
"The clear inference that I think many people would have drawn from that statement is that the moment Chris Hipkins is no longer leader of the Labour Party, it's all on."
Leary said Bishop's comments about Hipkins' leadership being under threat were "a load of rubbish".
That's probably right, but the damage had been done.
As Audrey Young said in the Herald, Labour candidates should not be saying they personally supported a wealth tax but supported their leader 100 percent.
"Anyone who says 'yes, but…' either does not understand how to campaign or is happy to sabotage their party's campaign," she said.
"They should be reminded that the election is about what parties will do in government, not in opposition. Discussions about what might happen in opposition should be left until they are there… you have to wonder how lax the Labour Party leadership has been in its communication with candidates."
National's tax cuts continued to be attacked this week, with the CTU producing figures it said showed only 3000 households would get the $250 a fortnight relief package the party had headlined when it announced the policy.
Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson backed the CTU, issuing a statement saying the 3000 figure represented just 0.18 percent of families. He said National had been scamming New Zealanders about their number one policy.
National's finance spokesperson Nicola Willis told Morning Report the 3000 figures was correct but she "utterly rejected" claims her party had been misleading when it released the policy.
"National has been very clear that if New Zealanders want to know what tax relief, they are due under our tax plan, it will depend on their individual tax plans and circumstances," she said.
"What we have said - and this is absolutely correct - is that New Zealanders with a family are eligible for up to $250 a fortnight in tax relief under our plan.
"So that accounts for around 3000 families, that is why we have said if you want to know how much you're getting under our tax plan, to go National's tax calculator."
The $250 a fortnight relief package is a combination of tax cuts, Working for Families allowances and childcare subsidies.
*Peter Wilson is a life member of Parliament's press gallery, 22 years as NZPA's political editor and seven as parliamentary bureau chief for NZ Newswire.