By Natasha Bertrand, Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Hansler and Alex Marquardt, CNN
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Photo: AFP / Handout / Khamenei.IR
Iran's government is extremely nervous and has been engaging in urgent diplomatic efforts with countries in the Middle East to gauge whether they can reduce the scale of Israel's response to its missile attack earlier this month and - if that fails - help protect Tehran, sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
Iran's anxiety stems from uncertainty about whether the US can convince Israel not to strike Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities, and the fact that its most important proxy militia in the region, Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened by Israeli military operations in recent weeks, the sources said.
The US has been consulting with Israel on how it plans to respond to Iran's 1 October attack, and US officials have made clear they do not want Israel to target Iranian nuclear sites or oil fields. US President Joe Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, their first conversation in almost two months, telling him Israel's retaliation should be "proportional."
The US' Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, have also expressed concern to the US about a potential attack on Iranian oil facilities, which could create negative economic and environmental impacts for the entire region, an Arab diplomat told CNN.
The Biden administration is deeply worried that the ongoing tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel, which began earlier this year after Israel struck what Iran said was its consulate building in Damascus, could spiral into a major regional war that pulls the US in, too.
A major part of the fears is that the US' influence with Israel has appeared to be steadily waning over the last year. Similarly to its operations in Gaza, Israel has increasingly disregarded the US' calls for more restraint in Lebanon, where Israel's intense bombing campaign and ground offensive has killed over 1400 people since late last month.
Israel also did not consult with the US before conducting a massive attack that exploded thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives last month, or before assassinating Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and upending a delicate ceasefire proposal that had been put forward by the US and France less than 48 hours earlier.
Israel's security cabinet has not yet reached a decision on how to proceed, an Israeli official told CNN on Friday. And while the gap between the US and Israeli positions is narrowing, it may not remain that way, a US official said.
"We can't actually know whether they voted or not," a senior administration official said of the Israeli cabinet's discussions, expressing scepticism over the level of transparency about what Israel is sharing with the US. The official suggested they can't "put too much stock in the machinations" of the Israeli government.
As of last week, Israel had not given any assurances that it would not target Iran's nuclear facilities, CNN reported.
Israel has for decades been planning attacks on Iran's nuclear capabilities, and just two years ago simulated striking them in a military exercise. Israel is also suspected of carrying out assassinations against Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and Iran's nuclear facilities have come under siege from cyberattacks, likely from Israel - the most famous being the Stuxnet virus, which was able to penetrate Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.
'Our strike will be powerful'
Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant issued a strong warning to Iran about his country's response on Wednesday.
"Our strike will be powerful, precise, and above all - surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened," Gallant said.
The Gulf states, broadly, are eager to stay on the sidelines of the conflict, the Arab diplomat said. While Iran has publicly warned that any parties seen as aiding Israel will be treated as aggressors, it is also unlikely that Iran's neighbours would explicitly come to Tehran's defence in the event of an Israeli attack.
But Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have told both the US and Iran that they will not allow Israel to use their airspace to strike Iran, the Arab diplomat and another source familiar with the matter told CNN. Jordan also will protect its airspace from any unauthorised intrusion, regardless of the origin, a Jordanian official said.
The US does not believe that Iran wants to become entangled in a full-scale war with Israel, and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera this week that Netanyahu "is the only one who wants a war and to set the region on fire to stay in power".
But the US has still urged Tehran, through backchannels, to calibrate its response if Israel attacks, an official said.
While Qatar regularly speaks to the Iranians and relays back to the US what they say, the US official said that ultimately "we just do not know what [Iran] will do." Key voices within Iran will have different ideas about if and how to respond to Israel, but that will depend on the scale and scope of the highly anticipated Israeli move, another US official said.
This official said that messaging from Iran has been consistent both publicly and privately since Tehran launched its barrage of missiles at Israel earlier this month and there has not been a significant change in messaging.
Iran has been particularly interested in getting help from Saudi Arabia in preventing an Israeli attack and using their influence with Washington to help find a solution to the crisis, the Arab diplomat told CNN.
Officials from each country have met three times in less than a month, and Araghchi traveled to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to "consult on regional developments" and to "try to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon and Gaza", he told local media.
The world is watching Israel's every move as it contemplates how to respond. But at least until Saturday at sundown, Israel will be at a standstill to mark Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement and the holiest day of the year in Judaism. And though it's not impossible Israel might launch action, shops, restaurants and other services will be closed, public transport will not be operating and even the country's main airport - the Ben Gurion in Tel Aviv - will be shut down.
-CNN