Photo: Guam Airforce
Pacific Island nations must move together if they want real benefits from the United States' expanding military footprint across Micronesia, Pacific Center for Island Security co-founder says.
Dr Robert Underwood, a former Guam delegate to the US Congress, told reporters during a briefing this week, Washington's buildup - from Tinian and Guam to Yap and Palau - is driven by a US threat assessment centered on a potential Chinese move on Taiwan as early as 2026.
He said island governments should not simply accept that framing but conduct their own assessment and respond regionally, not island by island.
The US Department of Defence treats the entire second island chain as a single operational space, Dr Underwood said, adding, while Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) and the Freely Associated States often negotiate separately, weakening their leverage at a time when billions of dollars in defense spending are flowing into the region.
He said the "best case" for the Marianas and Micronesia is to establish a long-term economic plan-addressing tourism, investment limits, manufacturing prospects and air service - and use US strategic interests as bargaining power.
He warned relying only on project-specific spending leaves island leaders with little leverage and no guarantee of sustained benefits.
Dr Robert Underwood Photo: RNZ Pacific / Eleisha Foon
He also pointed to deep sea resource rights as an area where Guam and the CNMI should coordinate, after the US Department of the Interior sought joint input from both jurisdictions on seabed mining.
He said a unified response could strengthen environmental protections and local claims to offshore resources.
China's influence continues to grow through diplomacy, aid, and trade, while the US response has been "almost entirely military", he added.
He said without a regional strategy led by island governments themselves, the Marianas risk being used mainly as a staging and targeting area in a conflict the islands do not control.
The Pacific Center for Island Security will release a broader assessment of regional strategic issues next month.