Severe tropical storm Bolaven is expected to pass through the Marianas on Tuesday evening and could potentially intensify into a Typhoon. 10 October 2023 Photo: NOAA Climate.gov
Marianas authorities say the severe tropical storm Bolaven is expected to pass between Rota and Tinian in the Northern Mariana Islands this evening and could possibly become a typhoon.
An update at about 10:30am local time on Tuesday said the storm's maximum sustained wind speeds remained at 112 kilometres per hour.
RNZ Pacific's correspondent in the CNMI, Mark Rabago, is on Saipan and he said people in the Northern Mariana Islands were busy this morning with last minute preparations.
"A lot of people are anxious, some are even terrified because of their experiences in the past [with typhoons]," Rabago said.
He said the government have told people to have water and food supplies ready.
People living on the coast have also been told to have an escape plan.
"Everybody is trying to do last minute preparations, there's no school, they activated shelters and there is a price freeze, that's been implemented."
Meteorologist Landon Aydlett from the US National Weather Service Guam said the worst storm conditions will be avoided if the system stays on track.
"The seven o'clock forecast pass does show a passage between Rota and Tinian with those strongest typhoon force winds keeping offshore of both Rota and Tinian," he said.
"This would be a best-case scenario if this track and forecast holds over the next 12 hours."
Another meteorologist, and brother of Landon, Brandon Aydlett said big surf is forecast and there will be coastal inundation for parts of the CNMI.
"This is the big concern as the intensifying Bolaven approaches and passes near Tinian and Saipan just to the south," he said.
"We could see those seas reaching up to 20 to 22 feet or so, this is going to be very dangerous across the waters...especially along the windward coast of the islands."
Saipan motorists have been filling up as Tropical Storm Bolaven approaches. Photo: Mark Rabago
Paul Stanko, a senior meteorologist at the US National Weather Service Guam on Tuesday morning said the system is expected to reach the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) Tuesday evening.
Stanko said the storm would likely only reach category one strength as it passes through the Marianas - not category two which was previously forecast.
Stanko said the storm has had trouble getting stronger.
"Tropical storm Bolaven has been intensifying slowly, which has been good news for us, we were worried if it were to be rapidly intensifying," Stanko said.
"The current track, has it going between Rota and Tinian, and so if we get really blessed all the typhoon force winds will be over the ocean."
A typhoon warning remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan.
While a tropical storm warning and typhoon watch remains in effect for Guam.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Agrihan, Pagan, Alamagan and Anatahan.
"A direct hit is pretty unlikely on Guam but of course we'll be getting some of the tropical storm force winds from the south," Stanko said.
Stanko said up to 300 millimetres of rain is also forecast for the Marianas over the next 24 hours.
He said people living in corrugated roof homes needed to prepare the most for the storm, while people living in concrete homes should be fine.
Pagan, Northern Marianas Islands Photo: Wikipedia
Meanwhile, the Northern Mariana Islands declared typhoon condition one at 5am local time.
It means typhoon force winds of about 120kph or more are expected, with damaging storm force winds of just over 60kph arriving within 12 hours of the announcement.
Residents of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota have been told to prepare for a category two typhoon, which would bring winds of 154 to 177kph.
Public schools in the Northern Mariana Islands are closed today because of the storm and most will be used as shelters.
The Northern Marianas Technical Institute have also suspended classes today and tomorrow.
Shelters have been activated in the CNMI all were opened 6pm yesterday apart from Rota's shelter that will open at 7am today.
A spokesperson for the Governor's Office has asked residents who need shelter to bring their own bedding, food and drinks.
Governor Arnold Palacios asked residents to stay indoors, unless for emergency purposes.
Stay away from windows and glass doors and be sure important documents like birth certificates are secured.
On Sunday a price freeze was put in place, which includes fuel and food, when a declaration of a state of significant emergency was declared for the commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.