A recession is on the cards as freight movements struggled to grow over the second quarter.
Photo:
ANZ's monthly Truckometer Index shows heavy traffic movements - regarded as a real time measure of current economic activity - fell 2.7 percent in June, compared with a 1.7 percent drop in May.
The light traffic index, which points to economic activity six months ahead, fell 3.4 percent in June, compared with a 0.1 percent increase in May.
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said with the second quarter data now complete, it suggested a close call whether gross domestic product managed to grow at all over the three months ended June.
"That suggests a chance of a technical recession, given the economy shrank 0.2 percent in Q1. But there are lots more GDP indicators to come," Zollner said.
A technical recession is when there are two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP, according to the commonly used definition.
Zollner said the heavy traffic index had dipped below trend, showing the economy was struggling to regain momentum.
"The small fall in GDP in the March quarter was all about supply constraints - firms couldn't find workers, and many the ones they did have were sick or isolating. And we suspect those supply-side themes have persisted into the June quarter," she said.
On the positive side, Zollner said it suggested the lost activity could be made up to some extent.
"But on the downside, it does mean that it can't be assumed at present that anaemic growth is going to lower capacity and cost pressures - rather, it might reflect them."