File image. Photo: AFP
New Zealand bucked the global trend for carbon emissions to rebound to pre-Covid levels, but the reason is not exactly cause for celebration.
This year, there will be 50 percent more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than there was before the industrial revolution. Global annual emissions have nudged past 2019's level, according to the Global Carbon Budget project.
The oceans are mopping up carbon dioxide and heat as quickly as they are able, but can only prevent part of the damage.
At current rates, the world has about nine years' worth of carbon dioxide emissions left before soaring past 1.5C heating - greatly increasing the chances of harsh climate impacts. Deadly heatwaves and events like Pakistan's recent floods get more likely with every fraction of a degree.
Not every country is emitting more.
Latest results from the Global Carbon Budget project show China reduced its carbon emissions in 2022 due to lockdowns. Europe's emissions also fell, while United States' and India's went up.
New Zealand has a system of rapid emissions reporting, which shows carbon pollution did not rebound to pre-pandemic levels, at least as of March 2022.
"There's a really interesting story behind why we haven't seen a rebound," climate scientist and IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) bureau member Andy Reisinger told journalists at a carbon project briefing.
Pollution from Aotearoa's old and inefficient car fleet soon bounced back to normal after lockdowns, however, emissions from service industries were a different story.
"Service industries haven't really recovered and that's partly a reflection of ongoing travel restrictions, renewed lockdowns and of course international travel restrictions," Reisinger said.
While New Zealand has not rebounded yet, it is too soon to say whether carbon pollution has peaked.
In order to see sustained drops, the country needs safer walking and cycling, better rail and bus services, cleaner cars, snugger houses (with lower energy bills), more wind turbines and solar panels and more in-fill housing, independent experts have advised.
Ralph Sims, Emeritus Professor of Sustainable Energy and Climate Mitigation, Massey University, said New Zealand's emissions would likely bounce back, and questioned why exploration for new onshore oil and gas was still happening in New Zealand.
Labour has banned oil and gas exploration offshore but still allows it onshore, while the National Party said it would repeal the offshore ban, if elected.
The global carbon survey looks only at carbon dioxide, not methane and nitrous oxide from farming, so it captures only around half New Zealand's official annual greenhouse tally.
Although carbon dioxide is the country's biggest, longest-lived contributor to future heating, Reisinger noted methane accounted for most of New Zealand's contribution to heating so far, according to figures from the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment.
Transport and heat - especially industrial heat - are Aotearoa's biggest carbon dioxide polluters, although burning coal at Huntly power station to make electricity also bumps up the greenhouse count in dry years.
Despite being a high per-capita polluter (especially for a nation with so much renewable electricity), New Zealand has a lot of plantation forestry, which keeps the net carbon dioxide tally much lower than it would be.
Oceans, trees not keeping up
By far the biggest source of carbon dioxide emissions globally this year was fossil fuels - coal, oil and gas (in that order). Deforestation in Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo was also a major planet-heater.
Trees are still being chopped down faster globally than new growth can counteract, while both tropical forests and oceans are getting less effective at sucking in carbon emissions because the planet is heating.
On the plus side, 24 countries cut their fossil fuel use over the past decade while growing their economies, the Global Carbon Budget showed.
The influential - and historically conservative - International Energy Agency now projects fossil fuels will peak in the near future, as renewable energy keeps getting cheaper.
Countries are also re-thinking their reliance on importing foreign oil, coal and gas from a national security perspective, said Sims.
* This article was originally published on Stuff.