Photo: RNZ / REECE BAKER
The coalition would return to government, but both Christophers - Luxon and Hipkins - have lost popularity, according to the latest 1News-Verian poll.
- National: 37 percent, down 1 percentage point (47 seats)
- Labour: 29 percent, down 1 (37 seats)
- Greens: 12 percent, up 1 (15 seats)
- ACT: 8 percent, up 1 (10 seats)
- NZ First: 5 percent, down 1 (6 seats)
- Te Pāti Māori: 4 percent, steady (6 seats)
For parties outside Parliament, The Opportunities Party was up 2 to 3 percentage points, New Zeal was up 1, and Freedoms NZ was up 1 point to 1 percent.
Undecided voters accounted for 9 percent of respondents, steady compared to the previous poll in August.
The results assume Te Pāti Māori would win at least one electorate seat, returning them to Parliament. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat must have at least 5 percent of the vote to win seats.
It would leave the coalition parties with 63 seats to the opposition parties' 58.
Perhaps the biggest changes in the poll were on the preferred prime minister ratings, with National's Christopher Luxon and Labour's Chris Hipkins both dropping 3 points - although Luxon as the incumbent retains superiority at 25 percentage points.
Preferred prime minister:
- Christopher Luxon: 25 percent - down 3 points
- Chris Hipkins: 15 percent - down 3
- Winston Peters: 6 percent, up 1
- Chlöe Swarbrick: 6 percent, down 1
- David Seymour: 4 percent, steady
The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. It was conducted between 5 and 9 October.
All changes in the numbers over the three-month period since the last poll were within the margin of error.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
Earlier in the morning, 1News also released the results of another poll question which showed 40 percent of people believed the country was worse off than before the election, and a further 26 percent said there was no difference since then.
It's interesting, then, that the trends reported in Curia's latest poll released on Friday - showing a stark drop for National and Luxon alike - were not replicated here. Curia's polling is also done more frequently.