Universities have reported hundreds fewer enrolments in teacher education programmes this year.
The institutions are the main source of school teachers and have about 600 fewer primary teaching students than last year and about 65 fewer secondary students.
The figures followed forecasts last year of a shortage of secondary teachers but a potential over-supply of primary teachers.
Waikato University pro vice-chancellor Don Klinger said teacher education enrolments spiked in 2021 when people wanted careers with high job security.
He said that surge had dropped away and the students who enrolled now were generally the ones who felt a strong vocation for teaching.
"The students that we're getting now, they have a really high level of passion. The students that are coming now have a really high level of passion, they're making a decision. No matter what happens, this is what they want to do, so I think we're capturing that group of students," he said.
Waikato was the only university to report an increase in secondary teaching enrolments but Klinger said it would not cover the numbers that were needed.
"Is it enough? We're still seeing massive shortages in the secondary sciences, chemistry, physics, mathematics, Māori-medium and Māori language is always a challenge. So we're still seeing pockets of shortages in different places." he said.
Auckland Secondary School Principals Association president Greg Pierce said he had been talking to the universities and the number of graduates expected nationally this year was not enough even for Auckland schools.
"I think there are approximately 700 nationally, secondary graduates, or something in that region, and we have over 100 secondary schools in Auckland and if they are averaging recruiting say 10 first-year teachers on average, that's already 1000 let alone the rest of the country," he said.
Pierce said the shortage of secondary teachers was becoming drastic and better pay, especially when teachers were starting out, would help with recruitment.
"I think that's really important, that the starting salaries increase significantly and the speed with which teachers go through their incremental changes increases as well so they get to the top of the scale earlier than at present."
Pierce said schools would have to try to fill their staffing gaps with foreign teachers.
But he warned that was not always possible and schools preferred teachers who were familiar with the New Zealand system and culture.
Passion for teaching
With teacher education enrolments falling, RNZ asked students why they enrolled this year in teaching programmes.
Aspiring primary school teacher Anika Molloy said she always wanted to be a teacher.
"I've always been really passionate about education," she said.
Molloy said she had always been aware that some students struggled at school and she wanted to make a difference for them.
She said placements in classrooms during her studies this year had underlined that she had made the right choice.
"I love it. It's reminding me why I've wanted to do this my whole life. I feel really privileged with the schools I've been in," she said.
Recently returned from teaching English in Japan, Marshall Barrett said he always wanted to be a teacher and now he was studying to teach English, Japanese and possibly Māori.
He said teaching "ticks all the boxes" for a desirable job.
"I get along well with the kids and they seem to learn something from me. It makes a positive difference in their lives, it makes the world a little bit better if I do my job, and it puts bread on the table," he said.
Henry Lockhart said he decided to become a secondary teacher after working as a residential assistant (RA) in a university hostel.
"I was RAing in Wellington in a hall of residence and I decided I really wanted to work with young people," he said.
Lockhart said he intended to work as a social studies and economics teacher.
"A lot of people in my family have been teachers so it was kind of front of mind. I was a bit daunting the idea of being a teacher but the more I tried out bits and bobs of tutoring and being an RA working with first-year uni students I thought that it was a way to make a meaningful difference," he said.