Business / Money

Wage inflation expected to change as labour market shortages intensify - report

11:45 am on 31 March 2022

Another labour market report indicates shortages are getting worse for businesses, with wage growth expected to accelerate from the middle of this year.

The Sense report prepared for BusinessNZ states the number of job ads has increased 33 percent from pre-pandemic levels. File photo Photo: 123rf

The Sense report prepared for BusinessNZ said wage inflation was not yet at the red-hot pace of 2005-2008, but that was expected to change as labour market shortages intensified.

"The report says the situation will remain critical for at least two years, so it is important that any immigration reset does not deter critical workers from coming to New Zealand in the short term," BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said.

The report stated the number of job ads increased 33 percent from pre-pandemic levels, with widespread vacancies across regions, industries, and income bands.

"The biggest uncertainty for the labour market is the final shape of the 'immigration rebalance' currently being designed," it said, noting New Zealand relied on immigration to maintain a pool of workers.

"If immigration reduces, as likely in the 'immigration rebalance', we will need a structural change in our education and training sectors and in our capital markets, as well as business investment in new capital, systems, and processes," it said, adding net migration was likely to turn negative when the borders opened again.

It recommended businesses plan for intensifying labour shortages through 2022 and 2023.

Hope said the report would be sent to the workplace relations and safety minister with a request for an immigration reset that took labour market needs into account.

"BusinessNZ favours a simple, easy to understand and permissive immigration policy that supports economic growth. New Zealand needs immigration at all skill levels, and we need to welcome migrants back to New Zealand and acknowledge the contribution they make to the economy and our communities," he said.

"With borders now opening up, we also risk a net outflow of workers from New Zealand and an even bigger skills shortage crisis if we don't get immigration settings right."