File pic Photo: 123RF
Traffic movements have dipped again showing ongoing economic weakness with a turnaround not expected until 2025.
ANZ's Truckometer shows heavy traffic movements - a snapshot of economic production - dropped 1.8 percent in September but is 0.6 percent up on a year ago.
The light traffic index - a measure of consumer behaviour looking six months ahead - dropped 1 percent and is 1.1 percent lower than a year ago.
ANZ economist Henry Russell said it was likely there would be little growth for the rest of the year.
"It is going to take time for demand to improve but our current expectation is that the economy treads water largely across the rest of 2024 and then a gradual recovery follows through 2025. As things stand currently, it does look like returning to a more normal level of economic activity is going to be a story for 2026."
Russell said overall the traffic trend was flat but when population growth was considered it was clearly in decline.
"New Zealand's population has grown significantly over the past couple of years and when you account for that and look at it in per capita terms the trend is ambiguously down. Things for the person on the street at the moment are very tough and that's the signal coming through from the likes of the Trucko and other economic data recently."
He said falling interest rates did not have an immediate effect on freight movements and would take some time to flow through.
Mortgage rates were where monetary policy would be felt first.
"A lot of New Zealanders are on fixed mortgages and that will take time for them to roll over on lower rates. The good news is that a lot of New Zealanders have been choosing shorter terms and as a result we might see the pass through be a little faster this cycle than what we've seen previously," Russell said.
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