Former Defence Minister Andrew Little. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Former Defence Minister Andrew Little says he "strongly disagrees" with critics of AUKUS on whether China poses a threat, saying there are material threats to the Pacific region that have not been present before.
Little, who served as the minister of defence and the minister responsible for the GCSB and NZSIS in the previous government, has presented a lecture titled "Perceptions of Indo-Pacific Security: New Zealand's challenging choices in an unpredictable era" at the University of Canterbury.
In a wide-ranging lecture, Little set out the conversations around AUKUS that he was part of in government, as well as his take on the threat posed by China and the US' commitments to the Pacific.
"In my view, New Zealand faces material threats in our region that have not been present before. They are not threats of immediate physical conflict, but they are threats from players whose belief systems and values, and whose conduct in other parts of the world indicate they are willing to flout international law and norms," he said.
New Zealand is not a member of the AUKUS pact, but has indicated it would have conversations around participating in the second "pillar" of the deal, which would involve defence technology sharing.
In opposition, Labour has claimed the government's language around AUKUS has shifted, and that it is now showing a real desire to sign up to Pillar 2. The government maintains it is following the same process started by the previous Labour government.
Little said comments by members of the new government shortly after being sworn in were unhelpful, and indicated there was talk of wanting to sign up to Pillar 2 as quickly as possible.
However, he said more recent comments by Winston Peters "seem about right," in that there was nothing to respond to because there was no proposal.
"I would hope the hiatus in any further development of the idea of Pillar 2 would be an opportunity to debate what is really at issue for New Zealand. I go back to the question: what best meets our needs, obligations and interests?" he said.
Little said he had discussed Pillar 2 with his counterparts in the AUKUS alliance, but the idea was still in its early stages. He said nobody was sure what being involved in Pillar 2 would entail, or whether it would require investment or a commitment of people.
"It would be reckless of any government, looking at current threat assessments and purporting to act in the best interests of New Zealand's national security, not to consider how and with whom we partner to acquire the military technology that is best suited to our needs," he said.
He also disagreed with arguments from critics of AUKUS that it is a US plan to contain China.
"There might be some legitimacy to that argument, but if it is used to suggest there is no threat to respond to and that we have no interest in the broader Indo-Pacific, then it's a meaningless claim and gets us no further in deciding what we, as a country, should do."
Little said China had gone through a "phenomenal" transformation, which New Zealand had benefitted from.
"China cannot be denied the benefits of its growing economic impact and influence. And we should be careful not to over-react to the usual tension that goes with the inexorable change within nations and between nations generated by growing wealth. That is just history running its course," he said.
However, Little accepted that China had embraced an "aggressive nationalism," engaging in cyber-attacks and going outside the usual Pacific Islands Forum processes in its security deals with Pacific nations.
"I strongly disagree with those who argue that China is a benign presence and poses no threat. The nature of China's engagement in the Pacific, its ambitions and its conduct in the South China Sea, as well as its actions in the cybersphere, make its presence in our neighbourhood a source of tension," he said.
He said in being realistic about the threat posed by China, New Zealand must also be realistic about its partners.
Little questioned the United States' long-term commitment to the Pacific, but it was still a long-standing military partner.
He said AUKUS may be irrelevant if New Zealand continues the close diplomatic and military relations with its longstanding partners like the US, UK, and Australia.