Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver
New Zealand First would be out of Parliament, and Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori would have enough seats to form a government together, according to the latest 1 News Verian Poll.
National is on 36 percent, down two points on the previous poll from February.
ACT is down a point to 7 percent, while New Zealand First is down two points to 4 percent - below the 5 percent threshold needed to get into Parliament.
Labour is up two points to 30 percent , the Greens are up two to 14 percent, and while Te Pāti Māori is steady on 4 percent and so also below the threshold, the poll assumes it keeps its electorate seats.
With New Zealand First out, National's 48 seats and ACT's 9 would not be enough to cross the line.
Labour would have 40 seats, the Greens 18, and Te Pāti Māori 6.
The result would see the Luxon-led government be the first single-term National-led government, TVNZ reports.
This was not an unprecedented result for an incumbent government though has not historically happened so early in its tenure, with similar results experienced by Key and Clark governments in their third terms, it reports.
In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, Christopher Luxon is down two points to 23 percent, while Chris Hipkins is up a point to 16 percent.
New Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is on 6 percent, up two points. David Seymour is down one point to 5 percent, and Winston Peters is down two points to 4 percent.
Hipkins told 1News the poll "should be a real wake up call" for the coalition government.
Voters saw it as a "coalition of chaos", he said.
"They are concerned about decisions like rolling back our smokefree laws, cutting funding for disabled people [and] the number of [public sector] jobs that are being cut."
Swarbrick told 1News the poll showed New Zealanders were sick of the government's disregard for them and the planet.
However, Luxon told 1News they were "cleaning up a hell of a mess" from the previous government and polls would go up and down.
"We're not that fixated on them."
He said he appreciated it was a challenging time, but "what New Zealanders want is a government that's going to get on and deliver for them".
Meanwhile, Seymour said he was satisfied with ACT's 7 percent rating.
"Year after year I used to bang away, and 7 was a dream. If you're trying to tell me that's now a nightmare then I'm a pretty happy guy," he told TVNZ.
Pessimism in the economy was up seven points to 26 percent, and optimism down 3 points to 36 percent.
The poll was taken between 20-24 April with a sample of 1000 people surveyed by mobile phone and online, with a ±3.1 percent-point margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level.