Pacific nations, like Samoa, are on the frontline of climate change impacts. Photo: Unsplash: Fine Fifita
A new report from the Asian Development Bank says climate change could cause a total loss of 16.9 percent of GDP across Asia and Pacific region by 2070.
Most of the region would face more than 20 percent loss.
This projection is based on a under a high-end emissions scenario, or RCP8.5. NIWA explains this as the "high risk scenario", with greenhouse gas concentrations continuing to increase at the current or an accelerated rate].
NIWA adds that while global emissions are unlikely to continue increasing at current rates to the end of the 21st century, the RCP8.5 projections serve the purpose of defining the upper envelope of likely futures required for high-risk impacts.
The ADB report said a scenario that reflects attainment of Paris Agreement temperature goals (RCP2.6) could reduce this GDP drop to 11 percent by 2100.
Among the assessed countries and subregions, these losses are concentrated in Bangladesh (-30.5%), Vietnam (-30.2%), Indonesia (-26.8%), India (-24.7%), "the rest of Southeast Asia" (-23.4%), higher-income Southeast Asia (-22.0%), Pakistan (-21.1%), the Pacific (-18.6%), and the Philippines (-18.1%).
The report said these losses confirm that climate policy responses, including adaptation and mitigation, will be essential to the future welfare of the Asia and Pacific region.
Climate vs Power - the carbon footprint of geopolitics
But the region is also set to increasingly face limits to adaption.
ADB notes a 2022 IPCC report, which said that due to economic and biophysical limitations, adaptation will not always be able to address climate impacts (IPCC 2022a).
"For example, low-lying coastal areas in certain islands of the Pacific might require investment in coastal protection that is 10 times a given location's gross domestic product in order to avoid catastrophic losses under sea-level rise, but that investment could be provided by those with historical responsibility for global warming."
Extreme storms across Asia and the Pacific are expected to increase in severity.
"Under a high-end emissions climate scenario, continuation of this pattern would lead to a doubling of the destructive power of cyclones in Asia and the Pacific by 2100, which is much higher than the change expected globally," the report said.
There are also concerns for the future of fisheries.
"About one-quarter of animal protein intake in Asia is from fish, with an even higher share in the Pacific.
"Climate change will profoundly affect natural fisheries resources, which are already under strong pressure from over extraction, pollution, and destruction of habitats."
The report said even if adaptation is rapidly scaled up, Asia and the Pacific will still face rising loss and damage.
But avoiding the worst consequences of climate change is still possible.
"The transition to low-carbon economies is underway in Asia and the Pacific but must be accelerated.
"Significant additional warming is already inevitable due to the long lifetime of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, but action taken now can prevent the world from overshooting critical tipping points. This would require a whole of economy transition to low-carbon technologies and systems.
"The co-benefits of climate action significantly outweigh the associated costs."
ADB president Masatsugu Asakawa said urgent, well-coordinated climate action that addresses these impacts is needed before it is too late.
"This climate report provides insight into how to finance urgent adaptation needs and offers promising policy recommendations to governments in our developing member countries on how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at lowest cost."
The full report can be found here.