(File photo) Rawiri Waititi Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
An electorate poll has the incumbent, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi well out ahead of Labour's Toni Boynton.
The poll, conducted by Curia Market Research for Whakaata Māori (Māori television) showed Waititi claiming a full 50 percent of the vote, a 28-point lead over Boynton on 22 percent; Charles Hunia of Vision NZ trailed on 1 percent; 15 percent were undecided.
The poll, completed on Thursday 5 October, had a sample size of 500 due to the lower voting population when polling for an electorate compared to the whole country.
It was similar to the methodology the outfit has used for its other electorate polls, but means there is a higher margin of error, of +/- 4.4 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.
This and the fact it is a single poll rather than a trend makes it less reliable than the nationwide polling, but it is still a decent barometer for support - and the gap between Waititi and Boynton points to a strong difference.
If replicated on election night, it would mean a marked increase in support for Waititi who only won in 2020 with 46.8 percent of the vote compared to Tamati Coffey's 43.6 percent - a difference of just 836 votes.
Those votes were what ultimately returned Te Pāti Māori to Parliament, and allowed Debbie Ngarewa-Packer to join him based on their party vote under the coat-tail rule.
However, the poll showed most of his electorate voters were likely to give their party vote to Labour.
It showed Labour with 37 percent of party vote support, ahead of Te Pāti Māori's 29 percent, the Greens on 7 percent, National on 4 percent, ACT on 3 percent, 8 percent undecided and 3 percent refused.
Waititi was more popular with younger voters, with 63 percent support to Boynton's 23 percent, while the race was closer among older voters (33 percent to 31 percent).
Chris Hipkins was highest on preferred prime minister at 30 percent, with Waititi garnering 21 percent support, Christopher Luxon on 11 percent and Winston Peters on 6 percent.