Analysis - National gains ground in another poll that shows the Māori Party could hold the balance of power after the next election. The finance minister reveals glimpses of his upcoming budget, there's a row over Winston Peters being trespassed from Parliament and a new plan to cut hospital waiting lists is greeted with scepticism. Simon Bridges delivers his valedictory and reveals his new career path.
Te Pāti Māori co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. Photo:
This week's Newshub-Reid poll showed a significant surge in support for National and was the second survey indicating the Māori Party could decide who runs the government after the next election.
National had gained 9.2 points since the previous poll to reach 40.5 percent support while Labour lost 6.1 points and was down to 38.2 percent.
The results followed the trend of other recent polls and showed the political landscape returning to familiar levels - National and Labour very close to each other and needing support from minor parties to form a government.
Translated into seats in Parliament, National would have 51, and ACT eight, leaving the centre-right two seats short of the 61 needed for a majority.
Labour would have 48 seats and the Greens 10, leaving it three seats short.
That's where the Māori Party comes in. At 2.5 percent in the latest poll it would have three seats if it retained the electorate seat it holds, and both the main parties would need its backing to get across the line.
A month ago a 1News Kantar Public Poll delivered the same scenario, with the Māori Party holding the balance of power.
That situation would almost certainly favour Labour.
The Māori Party has been sharply critical of the centre-right, particularly ACT, and National's vow to scrap the Māori Health Authority would be a huge problem to overcome if there were negotiations to form a government.
The Māori Party will also have learned lessons from the previous government.
Former prime minister John Key brought the Māori Party into his coalition, although he did not need the numbers, and it made gains for Māori through that.
However, it suffered badly from its association with National and was voted out of Parliament in the 2017 election when Labour won all seven Māori roll seats.
It returned in 2020 when Rawiri Waititi won the Te Waiariki seat from Labour. He leads the party with Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, who came in as a list MP. Since then it has slightly increased its share of the party vote.
It would be in Labour's interests to make sure Waititi retains the seat in next year's election, which it could do by campaigning for the party vote only in Te Waiariki. That's what National does in Epsom to make sure David Seymour keeps the seat and ACT stays alive.
Before previous elections, Labour has always said it doesn't make deals.
National leader Christopher Luxon told Morning Report the poll showed New Zealanders didn't have confidence in the government's ability to combat the rising cost of living.
He refused to be drawn on whether National would consider forming a coalition government that included the Māori Party.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson, on the same programme, said the pandemic and global inflationary pressures were creating a challenging situation.
Robertson has consistently denied the government is guilty of wasteful spending - another National Party complaint - and has said he won't back away from funding vital infrastructure projects.
National has yet to come up with substantial policies to deal with inflation. Apart from achieving stability under Luxon's leadership and announcing a tax cuts policy it hasn't really done a great deal to account for its increased support except blame the government for the cost of living.
Grant Roberston and Christopher Luxon. Photo: RNZ
Robertson and Luxon both delivered pre-Budget speeches this week. Neither was particularly revealing.
The finance minister said health and climate change would be the two key spending areas and a Climate Emergency Response Fund would be created with money gathered via the Emissions Trading Scheme.
In an upbeat speech to a business audience in Wellington he highlighted the government's successes, saying economic activity was higher than pre-Covid and unemployment was at a record low.
Luxon spoke to a business audience in Auckland, Stuff reported, delivering a speech setting out National's economic values and blaming the government for - guess what - the rising cost of living.
He said there wasn't a quick-fix for New Zealand's economic issues and he wasn't going to announce any big policies and claim they were transformational.
"Instead, National's approach is to relentlessly target the big drivers of our economic engine - education and skills, infrastructure, technology, the business environment and our connections with the world," he said.
Budget day is Thursday 19 May.
Winston Peters visits protesters outside Parliament. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver
The trespass notice issued against Winston Peters caused a brief flurry of excitement this week.
Peters and four other former MPs were trespassed from Parliament for visiting the protesters during the occupation of Parliament.
A total 151 notices were issued, 144 of them against people who had been arrested, RNZ reported. Peters was not arrested, but he and the other former MPs were lumped in with the rest.
Peters made a great fuss about this on Morning Report, accusing Speaker Trevor Mallard of "dictatorial, fascist behaviour" and saying he was going to take him on in the courts.
Mallard has ultimate responsibility for trespass notices but had delegated the issuing of them to Parliament's security team.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, clearly unhappy about the way it had been handled, asked Mallard to convene the cross-party Parliamentary Service Commission. The commission met to decide whether former MPs should be treated differently to anyone else when it came to trespassing, and decided they should not be.
However, the next day Mallard withdrew the notices against Peters and the other former MPs on the grounds that they weren't likely to cause trouble if they returned to the precinct.
The attempt to trespass Peters generated considerable comment, and Mallard didn't come out of it well.
NZ Herald political editor Claire Trevett said Mallard should not have left it to "some poor soul in parliamentary security" to decide who should get trespass notices, and the blanket issuing of them paid no heed to the purpose of the visits.
"Peters visited once, briefly, and his purpose was to meet with the protesters and hear their point of view, not to protest himself," she said.
Former speaker Sir David Carter told Morning Report it was a stupid move without justification.
"I think trespass orders should be considered for people who come on and protest and break the law, for people who protest peacefully we should actually encourage protest at Parliament," he said.
Mallard was meant to be Parliament's person but was too entrenched in Labour, Carter said.
Peters had the last word, saying it was his threat of legal action which prompted Mallard to withdraw the notices.
He called for a vote of no confidence in Mallard, which could never succeed because of Labour's majority.
Ardern said she still had confidence in Mallard.
Health Minister Andrew Little announced the creation of a special taskforce to tackle delays in hospital waiting lists caused by the pandemic. It must deliver a national plan by September.
Little said the number of people waiting longer than four months for their first appointment with a hospital specialist had doubled because of the pandemic, and the number of people waiting longer than four months for treatment had more than trebled.
"I expect a national review of all waiting lists and a reassessment of the situation of everyone on it," the minister said.
"I also expect the taskforce to make full use of all health resources, including those in the private sector."
Little said he had been told that if the problem was approached "in the ways we have before" it could take between three and five years to clear the planned-care backlog.
"It is my expectation that we can clear the backlog in considerably less time than that."
The problems the taskforce faces were quickly pointed out.
The Association of Salaried Medical Specialists executive director Sarah Dalton said it had a big job ahead, Stuff reported.
"It's still the same number of operating theatres being tasked with this work, the same workforce, possibly less," she said.
"Let's not pretend things were just rosy before Covid arrived. We didn't have manageable waiting lists for planned care in 2019 - far from it."
The Herald also quoted Dalton: "We just don't have enough people across every workforce group and there are large vacancies in almost every speciality service."
National health spokesperson Shane Reti, a former GP, said waiting lists had been growing since before the pandemic. He gave figures he had obtained through written parliamentary questions to prove his point.
National's Simon Bridges left Parliament after 14 years, and in his valedictory speech he appealed to his fellow MPs: "Please, please, let's not be quite so poll and focus group driven. They will make you nice, and beige, and timid. In short, wishy-washy."
The next day Bridges revealed his next steps - he has signed up to host Stuff's first digital audio show.
"It's a great way to have some fun, possibly be a bit deep and meaningful from time to time and have a creative outlet," he said.
"It won't be what people necessarily expect from me."
Bridges declined to comment on speculation that he would be taking up the leadership of the Auckland Chamber of Commerce.
*Peter Wilson is a life member of Parliament's press gallery, 22 years as NZPA's political editor and seven as parliamentary bureau chief for NZ Newswire.