When, in ‘Beauty and a Beat’, Justin Bieber promises to “party like it’s 3012 tonight”, how do you picture the evening going down?
Justin Bieber, architect of the future Photo: Unknown
I posed that question over the weekend, as one does when wiling away a hangover to Believe, and the best we could come up with was a wild night in an oxygen chamber with some kind of Soylent-type substance, perhaps taken intravenously. (Though, going by the video clip, JB’s money was on more water parks.)
Then ‘One Love’ came on and I lost interest in the subject, because the future doesn’t seem all that interesting or important when it’s so far away, and Justin probably has zero intentions of showing you the finer things in life anyway.
It’s hard to picture what the world might look like in 50, 30, 20, even 15 years without drawing, even subconsciously, from depictions of the future in popular culture: Minority Report-style interactive interfaces, flying cars, interplanetary travel. Predictions of the future so often comically, woefully miss the mark, even educated guesses are something of a fool’s game.
But a picture of what we can expect of New Zealand society in a couple of decades’ time, informed by trends observed over the past few censuses, is starting to come into focus.
A report released by the Royal Society this afternoon fleshes out data and analysis from the 2013 census to provide “evidence-based pointers to the future”, and what challenges and opportunities we can expect. It describes an increasingly diverse but possibly dwindling population, concentrated in all of the main centres but especially Auckland; a New Zealand where there’s not one ‘national identity’, but many.
In the last 20 years increased immigration, from Asia in particular, has contributed to our national diversity, and as the population gets older and the birth rate declines, the already significant impact of migration will only become greater. The concept of ‘two peoples, one nation’ will become irrelevant, with the report predicting that the relationship between Maori and Pakeha may come to matter less than those forged with recent settler groups.
We’re already seeing the impact of this diversification in Auckland. With 39 per cent of its population born overseas, it’s one of the most diverse cities in the world, and home to a full third of the total population. And with less internal migration between regions, and growth predicted to centre on urban economies, the rural population is expected to decline.
The report is optimistic that we’ll adapt to lower population growth and a relative shortage of youth, though it highlights possible problems with supporting an ageing population, especially in rural areas: “The most obvious is in aged care, captured by a comment at a Hamilton workshop for this report: ‘Who will wipe your chin?’”
The fact that in 2026 there will be more people over 65 than under 14 is used to exemplify the cultural dominance of the baby boomer generation
As repellent a question that is for all involved, it’s time we start thinking about the big picture, and actively taking part in the long game.
The fact that in 2026 there will be more people over 65 than under 14 is used to exemplify the cultural dominance of the baby boomer generation, and often delivered with an implied shrug, as if to say “So what can we do?”.
But what the report evocatively calls “the baby boom ‘pig in the python’” will pass – and if younger generations want any other New Zealand than that which we’ll get through inaction, there are questions we should be asking right now:
How can we mitigate predictions that there will be less job security and “more precarious” employment?
Maori culture and institutions are expected to endure and evolve, but how can we maintain Te Reo? Is it even a priority?
Is there sufficient infrastructure and housing to cope with growth in Auckland?
What do we want Christchurch to look like, post-earthquake rebuild?
How can we make the regions vibrant, desirable places to live and work? As growth centres on cities, will there be enough services for people living in rural areas?
As the population gets older, are our support schemes for pensioners sustainable – and if so, for how long?
Should we be worried about the declining birth rate?
Are we being realistic about the impact of climate change, and what should we be doing about it?
“In 2014 it is rare to attempt forecasts beyond 2050 and forecasts often reach only to 2035 – the equivalent of looking back no further than to 1980 or 1995,” acknowledges the report. Many of the predictions of the present day made 20 or 30 years ago missed the mark by so wide a margin that they might as well not have been made at all.
But as anyone who follows the #fitspo hashtag on Instagram will know, the best way to predict the future is to create it. So let’s start talking about what we want our future New Zealand to look like. Now that Justin is back with Selena, my wishlist is wide open.