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The record visitor boom is over with predictions the tourism growth rate could hit zero over the next two years.
International arrivals hit 3.9 million last year and their spending was a record of almost $40 billion - an average of about $10,000 each.
But in the past nine months the market has tightened and the rate of growth has declined.
Tourism reporter Tess Brunton spoke with tourism leaders on the eve of their annual industry summit in Wellington.