Why Sir John Key thinks Donald Trump should win the US election

Former Prime Minister Sir John Key is fascinated by US politics and not only thinks Donald Trump will win the election in November, on balance he thinks he should. In a rare sit down interview he told Samantha Hayes why.

Sir John Key has spent a great deal of time thinking about the 2024 race to the White House.

"I love politics anyway in general and US politics is always very, very exciting and different. And it's particularly so at the moment."

The former New Zealand Prime Minister also has skin in the game as a director of California based tech company - Palo Alto - and as a homeowner in Hawaii.

As Americans head to the polls to decide between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Sir John has revealed to Stuff he thinks Donald Trump is the best candidate for the job.

"I think he's better for the economy.

"Donald Trump is driving very much an America First and a more isolationist kind of view. Actually, it's quite different, it's a very different foreign policy than we've ever seen. So that probably doesn't help New Zealanders much. But on balance, I think he's probably better for the economy.

"He's likely to embrace a bit more market. He's likely to have less red tape and he's certainly going to have lower taxes. So that bit is good."

Sir John says Kamala Harris has economic views that are radically left-wing and that she's more aligned with Senator Bernie Sanders than President Joe Biden.

"She is well left of Joe Biden.

"If she follows her instincts, doesn't follow necessarily what she's saying on the campaign trail, then she's quite left wing and ultimately left wing economics, in my opinion, has proven to be spectacularly unsuccessful."

Sir John says before President Joe Biden stepped aside and Harris became the Democratic nominee, Trump would have won no question.

"Yeah, I was like 98 percent."

He says it is "blindingly obvious" Harris has dramatically changed the narrative and swung momentum back towards the Democrats, but he believes the pendulum of American favour has since tipped back towards the controversial and divisive former President.

"If Donald Trump can wrestle the debate back onto the economy, I think he wins. I think if it's on all these other issues, he potentially loses. But I've still got him ahead in my brain."

"I think it's 55 - 45. He wins it"

The Republican candidate has promised to deliver momentous shifts in trade and immigration policy, to take an axe to bureaucracy and reverse climate change initiatives set up by President Joe Biden. He has strongly held views that don't necessarily align with Sir John Key who describes himself as unashamedly centre-right - economically conservative, but socially liberal.

Trump's self-titled "Maganomics" approach to the economy would see taxes lowered, red tape slashed and a return to American industrialism. He is yet to release an in-depth policy document but has said he'll do this by imposing significant tariffs on all imported goods.

Tariffs on Chinese imported goods could be as high as 60 percent. Analysts say this would disproportionately hit low-income households and Sir John also says they won't work.

"Actually, China doesn't pay those tariffs, middle income consumers or consumers in America do, because when a tariff goes on a good that you bring into a country, you the consumer pay that. So actually ironically, it's the consumers that pay. And I think the economists wrote an article a while ago saying that if all of those tariffs were put on, then that would have the single biggest impact of reducing the standard of living for Americans. So I don't obviously agree with this tariff policy."

The Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington says it could add $2600 a year for the average American household - that's more than $4000 New Zealand Dollars.

But Sir John still thinks overall Trump is still the better choice.

"Well he certainly wants lower taxes. He probably wants more market based solutions. He's probably got a freer energy policy. There's a whole lot of different things."

Kamala Harris is campaigning on improving the prospects of all Americans. She wants healthcare benefits extended, financial support for new parents and first home buyers, lower taxes for new small businesses and higher taxes for big corporations. The Democrat candidate could be America's first female President.

Her brand of economic policy has been dubbed Kamala-nomics. Sir John says it essentially boils down to higher taxes and more red tape.

"If you go back and look at a lot of the things that she'd said in the past, she isn't a great supporter of the marketplace solution. She is a supporter of very significant increases in taxes in the United States. Now she's changing because she's now the presidential candidate, and she's trying to say, well, for low to middle income Americans, I'll make sure those taxes aren't high. But I think in terms of the entrepreneurial capitalist culture that's driven the United States innovation and creativity, I think she's negative for that. And I think she would have a lot greater reach into rules and regulations and red tape basically in America."

Sir John says at this point it's still very close and the election could go either way.

He also acknowledges his preferred candidate is deeply flawed, saying he's struggled to understand the logic of Trump's repeated claims the 2020 election was stolen.

"For all of that, you know, he's been selected, and I can't fully explain that because I think, look, the blunt reality is if Donald Trump was leading the National Party in New Zealand, he wouldn't be the leader. I don't think New Zealanders would elect him. That's reality. But he, as I always say, you've got a very divided America at the moment. And he is a symptom of middle America in particular, feeling left behind and feeling unfairly treated."

Early voting is open in some states already and we'll know in five weeks which candidate America has decided to elect and if Sir John Key's pick for President is on the money.

- Stuff