The organisation tasked with providing independent coverage of COP27 negotiations says it expects 'loss and damage' to dominate talks again this week.
For the first time, financing for the damage already wrought on developing nations by climate change is being discussed at the annual UN climate summit.
The International Institute for Sustainable Development's Earth Negotiations Bulletin has held a briefing at the halfway mark of the conference.
It said 'loss and damage' talks, like all new line items for discussion, were intensely political, with countries wrangling hard to push it in the direction they wanted.
Fiji climate negotiator Sivendra Michael said informal consultations on the topic had stagnated in previous days, with parties often reiterating previous positions and no real progress on propositions to bring to ministers next week.
He said it was crucial that delay techniques such as extensive calls for workshops, ministerial events and commissioned research were not used.
Bulletin authors said it remained possible developing countries could get an agreement in principle to set up a specific fund for loss and damage, with a committee established to make recommendations on what it should look like.
But it would face stiff opposition from developed countries weary it puts them on a path to being liable for huge amounts of money.
In June, developing countries asked for loss and damage to be discussed but were rebuffed.
Talks lasting nearly all night finally got it over the line the day before the summit began - with the Group of 77 developing countries, including China, pushing hard for it.
But developed countries prevented "compensation" and "liability" from being part of the talks.
Bulletin authors said in the meantime the talks would be about bolstering insurance schemes, rapid deployment of humanitarian assistance, and funding early warning systems.
They said it would have to be discussed at some point, but things were still up in the air as all 195 had to agree to make progress.
The loss and damage finance talks will conclude in 2024 at the same time as parallel climate finance talks already under way.
"It is not clear at this point how or whether they will interact," the authors said.
They said the conversations had opened space for innovative ideas for how to do climate finance, including windfall taxes for oil and gas; debt cancellation; and debt for climate swaps: forgiving loans in exchange for countries investing in climate projects.
Government ministers will be at COP this week, including New Zealand's Climate Change Minister James Shaw, attempting to reach agreements on the hard work done so far by diplomats and officials.