Photo: RNZ / Richard Tindiller
The country needs to drastically increase its climate efforts so that by 2050 New Zealand is sucking in more carbon dioxide than it produces, the Climate Change Commission says.
It says things have changed since 2019 when New Zealand set its current target, with climate impacts getting more severe, faster than expected - and other, similar countries doing more.
If the government adopted the recommendations, New Zealand would have a positive impact on the climate in 25 years' time - and the efforts would include international flights and shipping, two big emitters currently excluded from the targets.
The commission's report also said methane should be cut by 35-47 percent by 2050, a change in range from 24-47 percent currently. It said investment in options for cutting methane has advanced since 2019, meaning making deeper reductions was now "technically and economically achievable".
The commission's advice to boost efforts comes just a day after the government released other advice from an independent panel it set up, which it could use to lower the methane target to 14-24 percent.
According to the methane panel, 14-24 percent cuts to methane would level the heating created by New Zealand's livestock methane and maintain it at 2017 levels.
But the commission said that was not enough, and aiming to level off warming from methane was not appropriate for a country like New Zealand.
Farming groups want the government to go the other way and lower the methane target.
Minister Todd McClay said on Thursday no decisions had been made on methane and the government would consider the commission's recommendations before making any changes.
First five-yearly review
By law the commission has to reassess the country's 2050 climate target every five years against a checklist of factors.
This is the first review.
It has recommended deeper cuts so that by 2050 New Zealand would be sucking in 20 million tonnes more carbon dioxide than it produced, effectively helping cool the planet. It called this 'net negative' - a step up in ambition from the traditional 'net zero'.
Since 2019 when the target was set the commission said climate impacts have been more severe and happening sooner than expected. Other similar countries were already doing and expecting more, and the planet was not on track to stay inside 1.5C of heating.
Rod Carr, centre, from the Climate Change Commission makes a submission to the Finance and Expenditure Committee in August. Photo: VNP/Louis Collins
"Responding to the significant changes requires further and faster reductions on both sides of the split gas target - and this is possible," commission chair Rod Carr said in a statement.
"Many people may ask 'why should we do more?' We recognise that the required change has to be feasible, with impacts that can be managed," he said.
"The evidence shows it's possible for Aotearoa New Zealand to reduce domestic gross emissions while still growing the economy, reducing energy costs, increasing energy security, and improving public health and our local environment.
"Change is coming - the question is how much the country chooses to steer this change. Doing nothing will likely lead to worse outcomes and higher costs, because delaying action will make the transition more expensive, and more difficult for some sectors and communities.
"The more that is done now to ensure a smooth transition... the better off the country and New Zealanders as a whole will end up."
The commission has also recommended updating New Zealand's next three emissions budgets (the stepping stones to 2050).
It said many of the investments included in its advice would more than pay for themselves in the long term, through fuel savings and lower maintenance costs.
The commission said direct financial savings from actions to reduce gross emissions would grow to $1 billion per year by 2040.
By law the government has to consider the recommendations and respond by the end of 2025.
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