Damage and a dropout on Arakihi Rd in Tolaga Bay caused by heavy rain during Cyclone Hale last week. Photo: Supplied/Uawa Civil Defence
Uawa Civil Defence is expecting Tolaga Bay communities to be cut off again and roads to continue crumbling as another onslaught of wet weather hits this afternoon.
A state of emergency remains in Tairāwhiti following Cyclone Hale, with MetService forecasting heavy rain north of Tolaga Bay today and Thursday.
MetService forecasts 70-90mm of rain for Gisborne north of Tolaga Bay from 3pm today until 9am on Thursday. Periods of heavy rain are also forecast for Gisborne and south of Tolaga Bay from 6pm today until tomorrow morning which MetService said may approach warning criteria.
Civil Defence area manager Greg Shelton said residents should be ready to evacuate before access was cut off.
"The ground can't take much more, the roads certainly aren't going to take much more, and all the mud and silt - if you get more rain on top of that it just turns to a horrible mess again.
"People want to get on with their lives, they want to clear things away but more rain, it just makes it ugly again."
The community was well-prepared with stocks of essential supplies - and a plan to deliver them if communities were isolated, Shelton said.
The forecast did not look as bad as last week's battering, he said.
Civil Defence staff are monitoring the forecast peak rainfall intensities for the Hikuwai River, which is predicted to reach 5m. Hikuwai River peaked at 13.5m last week after Cyclone Hale passed through the region.
Tairāwhiti civil defence controller Ben Green said conversations were needed about people and infrastructure in areas susceptible to extreme weather.
"We see these on a far too common occurrence now. Where people are living you can't be in critical flood planes."
Many roads in the area were "tenuous" in terms of where they were built and their resilience against flooding, he said.
The community response had been exceptional, but it would not take much for floodprone areas to be cut off once again, he said.
"All things going well, we'd look to terminate the current state [of emergency] and then move into the transition for recovery at some point on Friday. That's situational in terms of the next 24 hours or so," Green said.
Good weather over the past 24 hours had allowed the region to reconfigure its preparedness for the coming days, he said.
Gisborne District Council has 26 roads in the region closed or partially closed due to weather-related issues such as slips and washouts, with another nine only able to be used by four-wheel drive vehicles.
Gisborne District Council principal scientist Murry Cave said the biggest risk for the region was landslides, because as little as 60mm of rain on top of last week's could destabilise sodden ground.
"A rainfall event of say 120mm over a short duration can trigger landslides. If you get more rain on top of that the threshold for further landslides reduces," he said.
Gisborne Mayor Rehette Stoltz said the community was aware and prepared for the heavy rain overnight.
"Right now, we are still in a response mode, which means our main focus remains the safety and welfare of our residents as this next band of rain approaches. Hopefully, we will be able to transition into recovery mode on Friday and start the massive clean-up," Stoltz said.
One positive from rainfall
Major rainfall in Gisborne has meant the region can lift its fire restrictions.
The district, which has been in restrictions since late December, moved back to an open fire season this morning.
District manager Peter Clark said the recent rainfall, before and during Cyclone Hale, had allowed the change.
"The high rainfall has reduced the fire risk to the point that we can remove the fire restrictions in place for Tairāwhiti," he said.
But he encouraged people to continue being vigilant about the fire risks.
"Even in an open fire season, people should remain careful when lighting outdoor fires, or carrying out activities that may cause a spark."