By David Townsend*
Opinion - Boris Johnson's latest Brexit plan is not really cunning, nor is it new. More like a reconditioned motor than a brand new model. What the British Prime Minister has agreed with the European Union(EU) is, basically, former Prime Minister Mrs May's "deal".
Photo: AFP
Mr Johnson resigned over that as Foreign Secretary (describing her deal as a form of "vassalage" to the EU) and then voted against in Parliament.
He said it was not a deal any British government could sign up to. Some of his more extreme Tory colleagues described the May deal as "cretinous". It was defeated in the House of Commons three times, by substantial majorities. His and his supporters' manoeuvrings resulted in Mrs May standing down in July. Enter Boris Johnson.
Well, the May deal is more or less back but under Johnson's more boisterous, gung-ho management.
No wonder Mrs May, now a backbencher, looks so gloomy. Moments after the EU endorsed the deal, Johnson expressed confidence that it will be approved by Parliament this week.
Given the past three years this might be thought the triumph of optimism over experience. But now he has a very deep well of shell shock, exhaustion, fear and boredom amongst MPs over Brexit to draw on.
One thing that will certainly not happen is Johnson's resignation if his deal is defeated. Johnson never resigns unless it suits his personal agenda. It can also be guaranteed that he will not "die in a ditch" as he bravely put it to get the deal through by 31st October. As one of his disillusioned and sacked colleagues put it "no ditch is big enough to accommodate his ego."
There are some changes in the refurbished May deal, smuggled in under different wording. The Northern Irish (NI) border with the EU-remaining Irish Republic, was always the major sticking point to getting that exit deal (or any deal) through Parliament.
How not to have a physical customs or a check-point border established, which would be contrary to the Good Friday Agreement that established the basis for peace on the island of Ireland? How not to split off NI from the rest of the UK.
What was called the "backstop" (NI remaining in the EU customs union) in the May deal has been removed. It was a temporary measure that was to come into force only if negotiations in the transition period after Brexit (to 2021) failed over the border and customs.
It has ironically been replaced, in effect, by a four-year guarantee that NI remains in the Customs union and single market. It was a concession by Johnson to the EU to get agreement to a deal before the Halloween deadline.
It has cost him the 10 (NI) Democratic Unionist Party votes that formed -until defections and sackings amongst Conservative MPs- a tiny Government majority. The DUP has now said it will vote against his deal. That leaves the Government clearly in minority land.
As with Mrs May's deal the devil is in the Parliamentary arithmetic.
The majority of Conservative MPs will vote for and the majority of Labour MPs against. The Scots and Welsh Nationalists and the Liberals will vote against. Johnson needs 320 votes for a majority.
He has currently about 285 he is able to count on. The imponderable: how many of the 21 Conservative MPs, sacked by Johnson will vote against or support his deal, how many who left the party before being sacked will tilt one way or the other, and how many defecting or dissident Labour MPs will vote leave on just about any terms?
There are short-term consequences that will influence the vote. Should the deal be approved, Johnson will seek a general election as soon as possible.
His platform: I'm the man who got Brexit done. It could well be a winner. Should he lose he will still go for a general election: I was robbed by an anti-Brexit Parliament. That would resonate too. But to get a general election he needs a majority vote in Parliament.
Labour has blocked that twice already. Would they do it a third time? They trail in the polls and what would their match winning slogan be? Saturday is match day in Westminster. Easier to bet on the result of the All Blacks v Ireland.
* David Townsend is an ex-UK Parliamentary Labour candidate, a former Labour ministerial speech writer and special adviser and contributor to The Guardian, The Independent and The Times.