Geopolitics can hinder 'development and security' of Pacific islands, think tank reveals

As the region becomes more "hotly contested" because of geopolitical rivalry, Pacific island nations are holding their own to leverage the opportunity it presents, new research published by a prominent Australian think tank has found.

Lowy Institute's Data Snapshot, The Great Game in the Pacific Islands, released Thursday, has found that "island countries are leveraging major power competition, striking hard bargains to maximise development benefits".

However, the report reveals "unbridled strategic rivalry" also poses threats to good governance and transparency.

"This can further complicate the ability of Pacific Island countries to address the impacts of climate change, corruption, political instability, post-pandemic debt distress and rapid population growth," the Institute said.

Lowy Institute scholars Mihai Sora, Dr Jessica Collins and Dr Meg Keen said: "The Pacific's geopolitical landscape is increasingly crowded, with multiple powers vying for influence."

"China is expanding its reach through diplomatic relations, infrastructure projects, and development finance, while traditional partners such as Australia and the United States strive to maintain their influence," they wrote.

"But competition can distract from the Pacific's most pressing needs, and much more could be done to help improve the overall development and security trajectory of Pacific countries."

The report's main findings are:

• The Pacific's geopolitical landscape is increasingly competitive and dynamic. The previous dominance of Australia, the United States, and New Zealand as political and development partners is being directly challenged by China. All recognise the geographic, diplomatic, and natural resource attributes of the region, and want to maximise their own stake while frustrating the ambitions of their competitors.
• The Pacific is poised for more geopolitical shocks that could disrupt its political, economic, and security landscapes, and strain regional cohesion. Climate change risks are also increasing, impacting territorial integrity, economic stability, and human security. Economic hardships and political instability will continue to cause intermittent disruptions.
• Pacific Island countries are asserting their needs more boldly in international engagements, asking for better deals on trade, labour mobility, digital connectivity, and climate resilience. They are pushing traditional partners such as Australia and the United States to move beyond donor-recipient relationships towards more balanced partnerships that reduce aid dependency and promote economic development.

Lowy Institute research director Hervé Lemahieu said the Data Snapshot was underpinned by findings from several of the Institute's flagship research projects.

"The authors have synthesised the Institute's original data and in-depth research on the region to arrive at a comprehensive assessment of the strategic factors shaping this hotly contested region," he said.