Business / Covid 19

Consumer confidence falls after February Covid-19 lockdowns

11:44 am on 1 April 2021

Consumer confidence appears to be losing momentum following the February Covid-19 lockdowns.

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The latest ANZ Roy Morgan survey shows headline confidence eased two points in March to 111 points, which was below the historical average of 120.

The number of consumers who thought it was a good time to purchase a major item dropped six points to a net 14 percent, which was an indicator for the retail sector.

Inflation expectations also eased slightly along with house price inflation expectations.

"Households have recently been much warier about buying a major household item than their exceptionally strong house price inflation expectations would suggest they should be," ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said.

"Their self-reported enthusiasm on this front has historically been the best retail spending indicator in the survey. But retail spending has recently overshot, reflecting repurposed holiday savings, a catch-up from lockdown, the housing boom and interest-free deals."

She said households were expecting a lot more inflation than businesses.

"[Consumer inflation expectations] make it easier for retailers to raise prices, and if the labour market is tight, can also impact wage negotiations."

The survey's composite business expectations and consumer sentiment gauge suggest it has peaked.

"The composite now appears to have topped out, consistent with our view that the economy will go broadly sideways this year due to the closed border and supply disruptions," the report says.