Cyclone Gabrielle was a good example of how ill-prepared the nation is for climate disasters, Olaf Morgenstern says. Photo:
NIWA has cut climate science to the bone and set New Zealand up to be worse-prepared for future climate disasters.
That's the message from one of the global climate modellers axed from the Crown-owned science company this year.
Olaf Morgenstern finished up after 15 years at NIWA last Friday - one of four experts culled from a 10-person climate modelling team.
His expertise has already been snapped up by Germany, and Morgenstern has left New Zealand with a warning: climate science in this country is under threat.
NZ less prepared for climate disasters due to NIWA cuts
"We do this science for the public good, not necessarily just our own country's good; climate science is very much an international endeavour.
"We would be truly in dire straits if everybody else followed New Zealand's commercial ideology because we'd be sleepwalking into a climate disaster."
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Morgenstern holds a PhD in meteorology and is a renowned climate modeller, having previously worked in the UK and Germany.
At NIWA, he was among a handful of experts downscaling global climate models for use in New Zealand to better inform climate policy.
"They're pretty much the only tool we have at our disposal to look into the future so they're fundamentally important and extremely beneficial, though they certainly have flaws," he said.
Morgenstern said cuts to this work might save money in the short term, but would ultimately hinder New Zealand's international reputation and ability to predict and prepare for climate catastrophes.
"Climate change will certainly exacerbate.
"We've seen with Cyclone Gabrielle and some other situations that the country's poorly prepared, and part of the answer to meeting the requirement to adapt to climate change is to have a healthy ecosystem of climate experts who government and other players rely on for advice.
"How much is the sea level going to rise? How much is the frequency of tropical cyclones going to rise? We simply won't have the specialists to advise anyone on these things."
Labour's climate change spokesperson Megan Woods said New Zealand could not afford to lose climate experts.
"We are letting some really good expertise leave New Zealand, not because they want to, but because that work is no longer valued by our government."
Much of the jobs cuts - like Morgenstern's - had been a flow-on effect of the end of the National Science Challenge, which had funded this type of work.
Minister of Science Judith Collins said in a statement the funding initiative had always been time-bound. An advisory group, chaired by Sir Peter Gluckman, was looking into how the sector could be funded moving forward.
She added it was wrong to say NIWA no longer had climate-modelling capability - a line that also appeared in NIWA's media statement.
"It is incorrect to say that NIWA no longer has the climate-modelling capability that New Zealand needs. NIWA does, and will continue to invest in it," a NIWA spokesperson said.
"NIWA's ability to undertake regional climate modelling for New Zealand, based on downscaling of global models, remains."
Morgenstern was unconvinced, saying the future of climate science in New Zealand was uncertain.
"I'm not disgruntled. I mean, yes of course, it was emotional at the beginning ... but I'm talking to you because I feel that the system requires change.
"I'm worried about the health of the system in the longer term, and also the fate of my colleagues, who are very good people and don't deserve to be treated like this."