The number of properties on the market was 13 percent down on a year ago at 29,645. Photo: fantasista/123RF
2025 was the year of the first-home buyer, as flat prices and lower interest rates helped many people into their first homes.
Cotality has released its latest monthly housing data, which shows property values were flat in the November quarter and still 17.4 percent below their peak. The median national value was $806,551.
Sales volumes were down 0.6 percent in the month of November, compared to the same time a year earlier.
First-home buyers were responsible for 28 percent of purchases nationwide in October and November, while investors represented 25 percent.
First-time buyers were 29 percent of Auckland purchases and 39 percent of Wellington's.
The number of properties on the market was 13 percent down on a year ago at 29,645.
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Cotality chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the share of purchases going to first-home buyers in 2025 was near record levels.
"Last year was a pretty strong year for first-home buyers too, so I'd sum it up as being, if not a record, it's pretty close to it, and it's really been a sustained peak through 2024 and 2025.
"First-time buyers have just been really taking advantage of conditions, and capitalising on lower house prices, lower mortgage rates and less competition from other buyer groups, and new builds coming through to the market. There's good stock of listings out there, there's good choice, they have access to KiwiSaver, and those pots are getting bigger and bigger all the time."
First-home buyers were also able to access low-deposit lending through the banks. About 12-13 percent of lending to owner-occupiers was done at loan-to-value ratios of more than 80 percent, well below the 20 percent limit.
Falling rents may have made it easier for people to take their time, he said.
"Maybe some first-time buyers might have made the choice to stay renting a little bit longer, but I think it shows there's still that pull to get into the owner-occupied market, and get the security of tenure and really shore up your position. A lot of things are in their favour."
Wellington's were down almost 10 percent year-on-year and the country as a whole was down 1.7 percent, one of the biggest declines in the past 30 years.
Davidson said conditions would likely remain favourable for first-time buyers for the next 12-18 months.
"House prices might show more growth, but they're unlikely to race away. People won't find their deposits falling behind, I wouldn't say.
'I think first-home buyers will be a good strong segment of the market for a period to come."
He said the drop in November turnover, also reported by the Real Estate Institute and referred to by Westpac economists as the market "hitting an air pocket", was a reminder that there was still some caution around.
Sales were likely to continue to trend higher in the next 6-12 months, he said.
"Thinking about next year, a lot of those fundamentals are coming together a bit. We've had a challenging period in terms of people being on higher interest rates.
"There's been uncertainty about the labour market and unemployment has skyrocketed. There's that spillover, indirect impact on people who have kept their jobs still feeling a bit less secure in their roles - that restrains big ticket purchases.
"If you look at affordability measures, they're not screamingly cheap and it's not obvious housing is really affordable, but it is a lot less unaffordable than it used to be. Housing affordability is kind of coming back to normality in in some senses.
"The economy does genuinely seem to be turning around. I think there's a chance that, as the stock of property on the market starts to fall a bit, some of those things that have been restraining house prices probably aren't so much a factor in 2026, so we will see growth in prices, more growth in sales."
He said what happened to investors would also be interesting.
"'Mum and Dad' investors is a group that is going to be one to watch… they've been on the comeback. If anybody has got something to lose from a tighter regulatory environment potentially over the next year or two, depending on how the election goes, it's probably property investors."
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