Dry conditions on a farm near Ward. NIWA says the end of El Niño will not necessarily mean more rain in some dry regions. Photo: Supplied/Taimate Angus
The El Niño weather event, which has keep the country relatively dry for nearly a year, is expected to be over by the end of this month.
But National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) forecaster Ben Noll said we still should not be expecting many downpours May through to July.
He said while some people may be happy that there would be less wet weather this winter - Northland, Taranaki, Manawatū-Wanganui, Wellington, Marlborough, Tasman, Nelson, Canterbury and Otago were all in need of rain after droughts were declared earlier this year.
"Quite a few regions are in need of a reprieve from those dry conditions," he said.
"Even though we expect El Niño to end by the end of May, some of those dry patterns that those regions have been experiencing may continue through at least part of the upcoming three-month period."
The seasonal climate outlook for May - July 2024. Photo: NIWA
While May is expected to feature rounds of chilly, southerly quarter winds, Noll said there could be milder, westerly quarter winds from late in the month into June and July.
"It has been a fairly cool autumn so far, and that is going to continue into May," he said.
"As we go toward winter, there are signs that the temperatures actually could turn somewhat milder for the time of year as we go toward toward June and July because the winds may change direction.
"The average person might think that, 'Oh, it's been really kind of cold lately, it's going to be super cold this winter', and that might not necessarily be the case."
El Niño is part of a climate phenomenon called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system.
ENSO influences rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns around the world, including New Zealand.
NIWA's seasonal climate outlook for May - July 2024. Photo: NIWA