The hundreds of schools at risk from coastal flooding in major storms caused by climate change

Hundreds of schools are among critical infrastructure at risk from sea level rise now and in decades to come, data provided to the government shows.

Fire stations, marae, energy infrastructure and airports are also at direct risk from coastal flooding and landslides, while about 80,000 homes and 140,000 people risk being cut off from all critical services during a major weather event, with just a small sea level rise.

The data was compiled by Urban Intelligence, a climate resilience research organisation, as part of the Climate Change Commission's first progress report on the country's National Adaptation Plan.

That progress report found that New Zealand was not adapting to climate change at the pace or scale it needed to.

More detailed data provided to RNZ by Urban Intelligence shows that 77 schools around the country are already considered 'at risk' from coastal inundation in a one-in-100 year event, and that climbs with every 10 centimetres of additional sea level rise.

Just a 20cm increase - predicted within a few decades on some parts of the coast - would place more than 100 schools at risk, and two metres of sea level rise would put 257 schools in the line of fire - 10 percent of all schools around the country.

The most heavily affected districts include Napier, Thames-Coromandel and Buller, with 60 percent or more schools in each district expected to be directly at risk once sea levels rise by 2m.

With a 20cm increase, nearly 1300 bridges and 2000 roads would also be exposed to flooding, along with 15 fire stations, 14 of the country's 83 airports and 79 transmission structures such as pylons.

The data did not measure the level of damage that could be caused, which was also important, the assessment said.

"For example, an asset might be exposed, but may be sufficiently robust to withstand that level of exposure."

Idyllic - and under threat

Colville School, with a roll of 32, is among several small schools dotted along the western side of the Coromandel peninsula that are deemed 'at risk' from coastal inundation.

Principal Susie Sumner said big weather events in the last couple of years had already caused road closures, power outages and some flooding to the school and surrounding community.

"Around the fenceline we have the swamp area, as the children like to call it, and then we just walk 50m down the road and then we're directly onto the foreshore. So any changes in the water level is quite significant for us."

At the peak of the Covid pandemic, the school closed more often for weather-related power outages than it did for Covid lockdowns or illnesses, Sumner said.

The school had been able to access funding during that time for a generator, which now sat outside Sumner's office.

"So when we do get power outages, which is often, we are able to run the school and then people can access our community for food and water and everything else."

The school was now considering how it could fund solar power to build on its generator capacity, Sumner said.

More recently, the school had to make sure its water tanks have some water in them at all times, even if it was not needed, to stop them popping out of the ground and floating during a storm tide.

Fortunately, most of the school buildings were raised up well above the ground and protected from flooding for now, she said.

"[But] when we're making plans we're ensuring that whatever is put in place within our 10-year property plan, our five-year property plan, or even things like putting a swing set in, is that we are making a choice as to, 'OK, if this needs to be moved in the future, are we going to be able to do it or is this the best place to put it?'"

Urban Intelligence technical director Tom Logan said the 20cm sea level increase used as a benchmark in the Climate Change Commission report was no longer just theoretical.

"Regardless of whether we're optimistic or pessimistic we know that 20cm is pretty certain to happen.

"That's definitely not to say that we shouldn't be managing or planning for significantly more than 20cm, especially in the longer term."

Direct exposure to flooding was important, but so too was measuring the number of private properties at risk of isolation from all essential services, Logan said.

"From research overseas, we've seen that that can occur decades earlier than the direct risk and it's one of the things we haven't really talked about much," he said.

However, it was an important factor to consider when creating adaptation policies.

"When we talk about managed buy-out of properties what qualifies for that? Is it just the direct exposure, or should we also be thinking about this indirect risk, where a property might actually not be habitable because you don't have access to essential services?"

Susie Sumner said that, for Colville, "isolation is the key".

"We are a peninsula. However, in real terms, it feels very much like an island because we're often cut off - and that could be from the rest of the peninsula, or it could be from each other."

Her students could see the effects of climate change every time the road closed because of storms, she said.

"It is an everyday part of life and learning in our community."

Raising resilience

Climate Change Commission chief executive Jo Hendy said the third metric the report used, alongside direct exposure and isolation risk, was the 'social vulnerability' of communities.

That metric was included because it was vital to consider how resilient a community was alongside the physical risk, Hendy said.

"Looking at just, say, the direct flooding of buildings or infrastructure doesn't actually give you the full picture about what's going to happen to people.

"You need to be able to actually prioritise your effort and avoid cost and heartache."

Areas with low incomes might not have the resources to prepare emergency kits or adapt their housing, she said.

But social vulnerability did not just include the wealth levels of a community.

"For example, in areas where you've got a high proportion of elderly or young families then being cut off from access to healthcare or access to going to school, it's gonna hit a lot harder."

Everyone had a role to play in adapting to climate change, Hendy said.

"Whether it's people thinking about where they live, where they do business, whether it's local communities or local council thinking about their planning and where development should take place, or whether it's about central government thinking about the broader frameworks that support adaptation."

One of the easiest things to do was to avoid increasing exposure in the first place, she said.

"Avoid making the problem worse by doubling down [on development] in high-risk areas."

Hendy did not believe New Zealanders had their heads fully around adaptation yet.

"I think we're still in that really reactive space and we need to pivot really fast to being proactive - so having a very clear framework at a national level, really clear processes, clarity around roles and responsibilities, and also being really clear around how the costs will be managed."

That included making sure communities were empowered to make good decisions, she said.

"Those decisions need to be made on the basis of good information about what the risks are, and also a really good understanding of what the consequences of their choices are. So they know that if they do build in a certain area, what compensation or that no compensation might be available."

In October, Parliament's finance and expenditure select committee tabled the report from its inquiry into climate adaptation.

That report set out some principles for forthcoming legislation that Climate Change Minister Simon Watts has said he wants to get enduring cross-party support for.

However, the report's preamble said some of the committee's own members believed the recommendations were vague, open to interpretation, in places contradictory, and avoided some of the most challenging questions.

The government's response to the inquiry report is due in early 2025.

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