The New Zealand economy is expected to have come back to earth in the final months of 2020 as the post-lockdown economic euphoria faded.
Economists expect the strong housing market will help prop up GDP figures for the final quarter of 2020. Photo: Dom Thomas
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the three months ended December are due this week, with a much more sedate set of numbers after the previous quarter's record 14 percent gain.
A survey by Reuters has a consensus for 0.1 percent growth, but the predictions range between a 1 percent contraction through to growth of 0.7 percent.
Salt Funds Management economist Bevan Graham said there were a lot of factors at play in the December quarter, and through into the March quarter as well, which could influence it either way.
"Traditionally these are very strong periods for tourism, which obviously is non-existent at the moment, so you've got a very big negative coming through on that side and that obviously feeds through into sectors like accommodation and hospitality."
But he said that would be offset by a strong housing market, which would flow through to some retail sectors such as household furnishings, as well as the broader construction sector.
With so much volatility quarter-to-quarter, Graham said focusing on the annual numbers would prove more useful.
"On an annual basis, we think the year to December is going to show a modest positive, which considering what we've been through over the course of the year is a pretty good outcome."
The Reuters poll has an annual growth rate of 0.5 percent.