National's latest four-poll average was down a bit, to 48.9% after polls by Colmar Brunton for TV1 and DigiPoll for the New Zealand Herald.
On this reading National would have got comfortably back into office with its same three support parties - ACT, United Future and the Maori Party. In fact, it could have got there with just one of them. (Polling finished on 10 September)
Labour and the Greens were 25.0% and 12.9% respectively.
Poll performance of National vs Labour vs Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
National's lead over Labour and the Greens was still a very lengthy 11.0%.
Poll performance of National vs Labour and Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
New Zealand First was up to 6.2%, looking near sure to be back in Parliament. The Conservatives were still short at 3.7% but rising. Internet-Mana had slumped to 1.7% ahead of Kim Dotcom's big announcement on Monday. The Maori Party was 1.0%, ACT was 0.5% and United Future 0.1%.
Poll performance of NZ First vs Internet-Mana vs Conservatives (2014). Graphic: RNZ
Here is how the latest poll average would translate into seats, assuming ACT's DAvid Seymour wins Epsom and United Future's Peter Dunne wins Ohariu - and also assuming both parties get at least 0.4% in the election. If not, they would be "overhangs" and push up the number of seats in Parliament by two, requiring 62 for a majority. The table also assumes the Maori Party wins Waiariki and one of Te Tai Hauauru or Tamaki Makaurau, which recent polls have split near evenly between the Maori party and Labour. That additional seat is an "overhang".
| Parties | Latest 4-poll average | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| National side (total) | 62 | |
| National | 48.9% | 60 |
| ACT | 0.5% | 1* |
| United Future | 0.1% | 1* |
| Conservatives | 3.7% | 0 |
| Could go either way | 10 | |
| Maori Party | 1.0% | 2** |
| New Zealand First | 6.2% | 8 |
| Labour-Green side (total) | 47 | |
| Labour | 25.0% | 31 |
| Greens | 12.9% | 16 |
| Other | 2 | |
| Internet Mana | 1.7% | 2 |
| Total seats including overhangs | 121 |
* ACT and United Future are both assumed to get above 0.4% in the actual election and so each earn a party vote quota. They would then between them add only one net seat to National's side because National, having half the total party votes, would lose one quota. This is dealt with in the table by subtracting one seat from National to give it 60.
** The Maori party is assumed to win Waiariki and one of Te Tai Hauauru or Tamaki Makaurau, which would be one more electorate seat than the total its 0.7% party vote entitles it to. That would therefore be an overhang seat, pushing the total seats up to 121.
Explainer: The POLL of POLLS is an arithmetical average of the four most recent major polls since mid-June from among: TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, Fairfax Media-Ipsos, NZ Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan New Zealand and UMR Research, which is not published. The four polls included in the latest average were, in date order of the midpoint between the start and finish of voter interviews, New Zealand Fairfax, TV3, DigiPoll and TV1. The TV1 midpoint was 8 September.